Valladolid
vs
Real Sociedad II
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Valladolid 2–1 Real Sociedad II
The model makes it 44% Valladolid, 26% draw, 30% Real Sociedad II — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Valladolid 1.72, Real Sociedad II 1.32.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Valladolid's rating is built from 56 Segunda División matches and Real Sociedad II's from 56, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,082 matches.
Key facts
- Valladolid are 12th on 18 points from 14 games; Real Sociedad II are 18th on 13 points from 14 games — Segunda División.
- Valladolid have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Castellón.
- Real Sociedad II are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Sporting Gijon.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Valladolid 1–0 Real Sociedad II.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Valladolid vs Real Sociedad II
Has the model earned this number?
Valladolid at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Valladolid vs Real Sociedad II
Valladolid
Segunda División
- L0-1Castellón14 November 2026
- W2-1away to Sporting Gijon8 November 2026
- W4-3Leganes2 November 2026
- L1-2away to Granada CF23 October 2026
- L2-3Eldense18 October 2026
Real Sociedad II
Segunda División
- D2-2Sporting Gijon14 November 2026
- D0-0away to Sabadell9 November 2026
- W1-0Girona31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Las Palmas24 October 2026
- L2-4Almeria17 October 2026
What these results say
- Valladolid conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Valladolid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Valladolid had three goals or more.
- Real Sociedad II failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Valladolid | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 18 |
| 18 | Real Sociedad II | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Valladolid vs Real Sociedad II
- 25 April 2026Valladolid 1–0 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
- 24 November 2025Real Sociedad II 1–0 ValladolidSegunda División
- 2 May 2022Valladolid 1–2 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
- 19 December 2021Real Sociedad II 0–2 ValladolidSegunda División
Leading scorers: Valladolid and Real Sociedad II
Valladolid
GoalsAssists
- Adrian Arnuncio51
Real Sociedad II
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Valladolid the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Valladolid against 1.32 for Real Sociedad II. Valladolid's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.56 for Real Sociedad II.
How the model reaches 44% for Valladolid to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Valladolid to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Valladolid's ratings change nothing and Real Sociedad II's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level44%+1
- Valladolid's ratings44%±0
- Real Sociedad II's ratings44%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Valladolid at home · Real Sociedad II away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Valladolid 14, Real Sociedad II 14.
Real Sociedad II score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Valladolid have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Valladolid
- at Girona6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 19%
- vs Tenerife13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
- at Almeria20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 19%
- vs Burgos3 Jan · Segunda Divisiónwin 36%
Real Sociedad II
- vs Leganes6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 50%
- at Oviedo13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
- vs Cordoba20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 42%
- at Eibar3 Jan · Segunda Divisiónwin 22%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.