Oviedo
vs
Celta de Vigo II
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Oviedo 2–1 Celta de Vigo II
The model makes it 53% Oviedo, 23% draw, 24% Celta de Vigo II — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Oviedo 2.26, Celta de Vigo II 1.36.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Oviedo: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Oviedo's rating is built from 14 Segunda División matches and Celta de Vigo II's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,082 matches.
Key facts
- Oviedo are 9th on 21 points from 14 games; Celta de Vigo II are 17th on 13 points from 13 games — Segunda División.
- Oviedo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Girona.
- Celta de Vigo II are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Burgos.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Oviedo vs Celta de Vigo II
Has the model earned this number?
Oviedo at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Oviedo vs Celta de Vigo II
Oviedo
Segunda División
- L1-2Girona14 November 2026
- W2-1away to Cadiz7 November 2026
- L2-3Las Palmas2 November 2026
- D2-2away to Almeria24 October 2026
- W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC18 October 2026
Celta de Vigo II
Segunda División
- L1-2away to Burgos7 November 2026
- D2-2Cordoba31 October 2026
- L1-5away to Girona24 October 2026
- D1-1Tenerife19 October 2026
- W4-1Real Sociedad II10 October 2026
What these results say
- Oviedo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Oviedo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Oviedo had three goals or more.
- Celta de Vigo II scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Celta de Vigo II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Celta de Vigo II.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Oviedo | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 21 |
| 17 | Celta de Vigo II | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Oviedo and Celta de Vigo II
Oviedo
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Domínguez50
Celta de Vigo II
GoalsAssists
- A. Marin81
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Oviedo a 0.3% chance of the title and Celta de Vigo II 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oviedo the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Oviedo against 1.36 for Celta de Vigo II. Oviedo's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.85 for Celta de Vigo II.
How the model reaches 53% for Oviedo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Oviedo to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Oviedo's ratings add 4 points and Celta de Vigo II's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level45%+2
- Oviedo's ratings49%+4
- Celta de Vigo II's ratings53%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Oviedo at home · Celta de Vigo II away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Oviedo 14, Celta de Vigo II 13.
Oviedo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Celta de Vigo II have let in 2 there.
Celta de Vigo II score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Oviedo have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Oviedo
- at FC Andorra6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
- vs Real Sociedad II13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 49%
- at Tenerife20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
- vs Castellón3 Jan · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%
Celta de Vigo II
- vs Mallorca6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
- at Las Palmas13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 25%
- vs Eldense20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 45%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.