Mallorca
vs
Castellón
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Mallorca 0–1 Castellón
The model makes it 33% Mallorca, 31% draw, 36% Castellón — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Mallorca 1.06, Castellón 1.12.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Mallorca and Castellón are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Mallorca's rating is built from 13 Segunda División matches and Castellón's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,082 matches.
Key facts
- Mallorca are 5th on 23 points from 13 games; Castellón are 2nd on 30 points from 13 games — Segunda División.
- Mallorca are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Cordoba.
- Castellón are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Valladolid.
- Last 3 meetings: Mallorca 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 April 2021, ended Castellón 1–0 Mallorca.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mallorca vs Castellón
Has the model earned this number?
Castellón at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Mallorca vs Castellón
Mallorca
Segunda División
- D3-3Cordoba14 November 2026
- W2-1Cadiz2 November 2026
- D1-1away to Leganes24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Eibar17 October 2026
- W3-1Las Palmas11 October 2026
Castellón
Segunda División
- W1-0away to Valladolid14 November 2026
- D1-1away to Burgos1 November 2026
- W4-0Sporting Gijon25 October 2026
- W3-0away to Las Palmas17 October 2026
- L0-1away to FC Andorra11 October 2026
What these results say
- Mallorca went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Mallorca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mallorca conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Castellón scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mallorca | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 23 |
| 2 | Castellón | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 5 | +19 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Mallorca vs Castellón
- 17 April 2021Castellón 1–0 MallorcaSegunda División
- 7 December 2020Mallorca 3–1 CastellónSegunda División
- 1 September 2020Mallorca 2–0 CastellónFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Mallorca and Castellón
Mallorca
GoalsAssists
- Fuentes71
Castellón
GoalsAssists
- Israel Suero62
- A. Jakobsen41
- Ousmane Camara41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mallorca a 3% chance of the title and Castellón 52.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Castellón the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Mallorca against 1.12 for Castellón. Mallorca's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/0.95 for Castellón.
How the model reaches 36% for Castellón to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Castellón to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Mallorca's ratings add 3 points and Castellón's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Both sides at this match's level29%−1
- Mallorca's ratings32%+3
- Castellón's ratings36%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Mallorca at home · Castellón away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Mallorca 13, Castellón 13.
Mallorca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Castellón have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Mallorca
- at Celta de Vigo II6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
- vs Burgos13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
- at Albacete20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 41%
Castellón
- vs Almeria6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 47%
- at Cordoba13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 46%
- vs Granada CF20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 55%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.