Leganes
vs
Sabadell
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Leganes 0–1 Sabadell
The model makes it 31% Leganes, 33% draw, 36% Sabadell — fair odds of 3.23, 3.03 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Leganes 0.93, Sabadell 1.04.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Edge to Sabadell: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Leganes's rating is built from 56 Segunda División matches and Sabadell's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,082 matches.
Key facts
- Leganes are 15th on 15 points from 14 games; Sabadell are 13th on 18 points from 13 games — Segunda División.
- Leganes have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Burgos.
- Sabadell are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Real Sociedad II.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 4 April 2021, ended Leganes 2–1 Sabadell.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Leganes vs Sabadell
Has the model earned this number?
Sabadell at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Leganes vs Sabadell
Leganes
Segunda División
- W3-1Burgos13 November 2026
- L1-3Albacete7 November 2026
- L3-4away to Valladolid2 November 2026
- D1-1Mallorca24 October 2026
- L0-1Cordoba16 October 2026
Sabadell
Segunda División
- D0-0Real Sociedad II9 November 2026
- L1-2away to Albacete31 October 2026
- D1-1Tenerife25 October 2026
- L0-1away to Burgos18 October 2026
- W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC10 October 2026
What these results say
- Leganes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Leganes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leganes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sabadell failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sabadell conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Leganes | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 15 |
| 13 | Sabadell | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Leganes vs Sabadell
- 4 April 2021Leganes 2–1 SabadellSegunda División
- 29 October 2020Sabadell 1–0 LeganesSegunda División
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leganes a 0% chance of the title and Sabadell 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sabadell the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Leganes against 1.04 for Sabadell. Leganes's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.04 for Sabadell.
How the model reaches 36% for Sabadell to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sabadell to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Leganes's ratings add 4 points and Sabadell's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Both sides at this match's level29%−1
- Leganes's ratings33%+4
- Sabadell's ratings36%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Leganes at home · Sabadell away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Leganes 14, Sabadell 13.
Leganes score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Sabadell have let in 2 there.
Sabadell score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Leganes have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Leganes
- at Real Sociedad II6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 24%
- vs AD Ceuta FC13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 48%
- at Sporting Gijon20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 22%
- vs Celta de Vigo II3 Jan · Segunda Divisiónwin 40%
Sabadell
- vs Eibar6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
- at Cadiz13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
- vs Las Palmas20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 40%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.