Valladolid
vs
Leganes
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Valladolid 1–0 Leganes
The model makes it 50% Valladolid, 29% draw, 21% Leganes — fair odds of 2.00, 3.45 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Valladolid 1.49, Leganes 0.80.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Valladolid: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Valladolid are 11th on 12 points from 9 games; Leganes are 17th on 11 points from 10 games — Segunda División.
- Valladolid are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 5-0 win at home to Albacete.
- Leganes are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Cordoba.
- Last 6 meetings: Leganes 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Valladolid 3–2 Leganes.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Valladolid vs Leganes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Valladolid at 50% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Valladolid vs Leganes
Valladolid
- W5-0Albacete12 October 2026
- D2-2away to Las Palmas4 October 2026
- W3-1Cordoba27 September 2026
- D1-1away to AD Ceuta FC20 September 2026
- L0-3Oviedo13 September 2026
Leganes
- L0-1Cordoba16 October 2026
- L0-3away to Almeria11 October 2026
- L0-4away to Cadiz3 October 2026
- L0-2Castellón28 September 2026
- W3-2Granada CF20 September 2026
What these results say
- Valladolid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valladolid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Valladolid had three goals or more.
- Leganes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Leganes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leganes failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Valladolid | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 |
| 17 | Leganes | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Valladolid vs Leganes
- 14 March 2026Valladolid 3–2 LeganesSegunda División
- 11 January 2026Leganes 3–0 ValladolidSegunda División
- 24 May 2025Leganes 3–0 ValladolidLa Liga
- 10 October 2024Leganes 3–1 ValladolidFriendlies Clubs
- 28 August 2024Valladolid 0–0 LeganesLa Liga
- 3 February 2024Leganes 0–0 ValladolidSegunda División
The two sides
Valladolid carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.3 for Leganes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Valladolid and 0.80 for Leganes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Valladolid rate 0.66 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Leganes rate 0.47 and 1.47.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Valladolid a 0.1% chance of the title and Leganes 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Valladolid the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Valladolid against 0.80 for Leganes. Valladolid's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.47 for Leganes.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Valladolid at home · Leganes away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ValladolidLeganes
Valladolid are 9th after 9 Segunda División matches (between 9th and 21st so far); Leganes are 17th after 10 (between 1st and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Valladolid 9, Leganes 10.
Valladolid score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Leganes have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Valladolid
- at Sporting Gijon8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 25%
- vs Castellón15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
- at Celta de Vigo II22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
Leganes
- vs Albacete8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 39%
- vs Burgos15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 25%
- at FC Andorra22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 19%
- vs Sabadell29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.