Mallorca
vs
Cadiz
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Mallorca 2–0 Cadiz
The model makes it 62% Mallorca, 23% draw, 15% Cadiz — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Mallorca 2.08, Cadiz 0.78.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Mallorca are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Mallorca are 5th on 18 points from 10 games; Cadiz are 20th on 7 points from 9 games — Segunda División.
- Mallorca are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Eibar.
- Cadiz have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Sporting Gijon.
- Last 6 meetings: Mallorca 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 28 April 2024, ended Cadiz 1–1 Mallorca.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mallorca vs Cadiz
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mallorca at 62% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Mallorca vs Cadiz
Mallorca
- D1-1away to Eibar17 October 2026
- W3-1Las Palmas11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Girona4 October 2026
- L0-1Almeria27 September 2026
- W1-0away to Real Sociedad II19 September 2026
Cadiz
- L0-1Sporting Gijon11 October 2026
- W4-0Leganes3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tenerife26 September 2026
- L1-2Girona19 September 2026
- L0-1Las Palmas12 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Mallorca had two goals or fewer.
- Cadiz failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cadiz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mallorca | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 18 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Mallorca vs Cadiz
- 28 April 2024Cadiz 1–1 MallorcaLa Liga
- 29 November 2023Mallorca 1–1 CadizLa Liga
- 12 May 2023Mallorca 1–0 CadizLa Liga
- 28 January 2023Cadiz 2–0 MallorcaLa Liga
- 5 February 2022Mallorca 2–1 CadizLa Liga
- 31 October 2021Cadiz 1–1 MallorcaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Mallorca and Cadiz
Mallorca
GoalsAssists
- Fuentes61
Cadiz
GoalsAssists
- Antonio Cordero31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Mallorca carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.38 for Cadiz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.08 goals for Mallorca and 0.78 for Cadiz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mallorca rate 0.89 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cadiz rate 0.59 and 1.52.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mallorca a 15.6% chance of the title and Cadiz 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mallorca the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Mallorca against 0.78 for Cadiz. Mallorca's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.52 for Cadiz.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Mallorca at home · Cadiz away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MallorcaCadiz
Mallorca are 4th after 10 Segunda División matches (between 1st and 12th so far); Cadiz are 20th after 9 (between 3rd and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Mallorca 10, Cadiz 9.
Mallorca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Cadiz have let in 2 there.
Cadiz score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Mallorca have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Mallorca
- at FC Andorra8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 41%
- vs Cordoba15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 63%
- at Tenerife22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 45%
- vs Castellón29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 41%
Cadiz
- vs Oviedo8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
- at Eibar15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 17%
- at Real Sociedad II22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.