AD Ceuta FC
vs
Oviedo
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: AD Ceuta FC 0–1 Oviedo
The model makes it 28% AD Ceuta FC, 28% draw, 44% Oviedo — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: AD Ceuta FC 1.08, Oviedo 1.66.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- AD Ceuta FC are 21st on 4 points from 7 games; Oviedo are 8th on 11 points from 8 games — Segunda División.
- AD Ceuta FC have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Real Sociedad II.
- Oviedo have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Eldense.
All Segunda División predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: AD Ceuta FC vs Oviedo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oviedo at 44% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AD Ceuta FC vs Oviedo
AD Ceuta FC
- W3-1Real Sociedad II26 September 2026
- D1-1Valladolid20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Burgos11 September 2026
- L0-2Celta de Vigo II5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Mallorca30 August 2026
Oviedo
- L1-4away to Eldense2 October 2026
- W2-0Sporting Gijon27 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sabadell20 September 2026
- W3-0away to Valladolid13 September 2026
- D0-0Burgos6 September 2026
What these results say
- AD Ceuta FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Oviedo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 4 |
| 8 | Oviedo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: AD Ceuta FC and Oviedo
AD Ceuta FC
- Carlos Hernández4 goals
- Jordi Escobar2 goals1 assist
Oviedo
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
AD Ceuta FC carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.65 for Oviedo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for AD Ceuta FC and 1.66 for Oviedo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AD Ceuta FC rate 0.63 in attack and 1.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Oviedo rate 0.75 and 1.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AD Ceuta FC a 0% chance of the title and Oviedo 1.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oviedo the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for AD Ceuta FC against 1.66 for Oviedo. AD Ceuta FC's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.12 for Oviedo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AD Ceuta FC at home · Oviedo away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: AD Ceuta FC 7, Oviedo 8.
AD Ceuta FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Oviedo have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
AD Ceuta FC
- at Cadiz25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
- vs Sporting Gijon1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 32%
- at Cordoba8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
Oviedo
- at Almeria25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
- vs Las Palmas1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 44%
- at Cadiz8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 40%
- vs Girona15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.