Elche
vs
Valencia
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Elche 1–0 Valencia
The model makes it 45% Elche, 29% draw, 26% Valencia — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Elche 1.49, Valencia 1.00.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Elche are 18th on 7 points from 9 games; Valencia are 19th on 6 points from 9 games — La Liga.
- Elche are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Villarreal.
- Valencia are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Athletic Club.
- Last 6 meetings: Valencia 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Elche 1–0 Valencia.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Elche vs Valencia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Elche at 45% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Elche vs Valencia
Elche
- D0-0away to Villarreal17 October 2026
- D0-0Celta Vigo11 October 2026
- W3-1away to Espanyol18 September 2026
- L2-3Real Madrid15 September 2026
- D1-1away to Athletic Club12 September 2026
Valencia
- D0-0Athletic Club17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Racing Santander11 October 2026
- L2-3Real Sociedad20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Alaves15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sevilla11 September 2026
What these results say
- Elche failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valencia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Elche | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 7 |
| 19 | Valencia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Elche vs Valencia
Elche and Valencia have met 6 times in the records we hold, Valencia has won 3 of them to Elche's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Elche won the last one 1–0 on 11 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Valencia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 2.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 11 Apr 2026
La LigaElche 1–0 Valencia - 10 Jan 2026
La LigaValencia 1–1 Elche - 23 Apr 2023
La LigaElche 0–2 Valencia - 15 Oct 2022
La LigaValencia 2–2 Elche - 19 Mar 2022
La LigaElche 0–1 Valencia - 11 Dec 2021
La LigaValencia 2–1 Elche
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Elche and Valencia
Elche
GoalsAssists
- Fer Niño50
Valencia
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Elche carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.73 for Valencia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Elche and 1.00 for Valencia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Elche rate 0.92 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Valencia rate 0.77 and 1.00.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,111 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Elche the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Elche against 1.00 for Valencia. Elche's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1 for Valencia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Elche at home · Valencia away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ElcheValencia
Elche are 18th after 9 La Liga matches (between 7th and 20th so far); Valencia are 19th after 9 (between 11th and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Elche 9, Valencia 9.
Elche score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Valencia have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Elche
- vs Real Betis8 Nov · La Ligawin 31%
- at Levante22 Nov · La Ligawin 29%
- vs Atletico Madrid29 Nov · La Ligawin 25%
- at Osasuna6 Dec · La Ligawin 35%
Valencia
- vs Real Madrid7 Nov · La Ligawin 18%
- at Rayo Vallecano22 Nov · La Ligawin 25%
- vs Osasuna29 Nov · La Ligawin 45%
- at Getafe6 Dec · La Ligawin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.