Burgos
vs
Sabadell
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Burgos 1–0 Sabadell
The model makes it 39% Burgos, 32% draw, 29% Sabadell — fair odds of 2.56, 3.13 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Burgos 1.15, Sabadell 0.85.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Burgos are 4th on 14 points from 8 games; Sabadell are 7th on 12 points from 7 games — Segunda División.
- Burgos have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Almeria.
- Sabadell have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Celta de Vigo II.
All Segunda División predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Burgos vs Sabadell
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burgos at 39% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Burgos vs Sabadell
Burgos
- L1-2away to Almeria3 October 2026
- W1-0Eldense27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Las Palmas20 September 2026
- W3-1AD Ceuta FC11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Oviedo6 September 2026
Sabadell
- D1-1away to Celta de Vigo II26 September 2026
- W3-1Oviedo20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Mallorca13 September 2026
- W3-2Cordoba7 September 2026
- W1-0Almeria29 August 2026
What these results say
- Burgos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sabadell scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sabadell conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Burgos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Sabadell | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Burgos and Sabadell
Burgos
- Álex Forés3 goals1 assist
- David González3 goals1 assist
Sabadell
- N. Gioacchini3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Burgos carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.61 for Sabadell. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for Burgos and 0.85 for Sabadell. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Burgos rate 0.66 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sabadell rate 0.70 and 1.14.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Burgos a 1.8% chance of the title and Sabadell 2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burgos the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Burgos against 0.85 for Sabadell. Burgos's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.14 for Sabadell.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Burgos at home · Sabadell away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Burgos 8, Sabadell 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Burgos
- at FC Andorra25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
- vs Castellón1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 34%
- vs Celta de Vigo II8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 46%
- at Leganes15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 39%
Sabadell
- vs Tenerife25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 44%
- at Albacete1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 38%
- vs Real Sociedad II8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.