Girona
vs
FC Andorra
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Girona 2–1 FC Andorra
The model makes it 51% Girona, 26% draw, 23% FC Andorra — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Girona 2.12, FC Andorra 1.04.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Girona are 5th on 13 points from 7 games; FC Andorra are 19th on 6 points from 7 games — Segunda División.
- Girona have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Albacete.
- FC Andorra have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win away to Granada CF.
- Last 2 meetings: Girona 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 July 2023, ended Girona 2–2 FC Andorra.
All Segunda División predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Girona vs FC Andorra
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Girona at 51% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Girona vs FC Andorra
Girona
- W2-0Albacete25 September 2026
- W2-1away to Cadiz19 September 2026
- L1-2Castellón12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Sporting Gijon5 September 2026
- W5-2Las Palmas29 August 2026
FC Andorra
- W3-2away to Granada CF26 September 2026
- L1-3Sporting Gijon19 September 2026
- L1-3Real Sociedad II12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Valladolid5 September 2026
- L0-1Eibar30 August 2026
What these results say
- Girona scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Girona won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Andorra conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Andorra failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Girona | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
| 19 | FC Andorra | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Girona vs FC Andorra
- 22 July 2023Girona 2–2 FC AndorraFriendlies Clubs
- 27 July 2022Girona 2–0 FC AndorraFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Girona and FC Andorra
Girona
- Y. Asprilla4 goals
FC Andorra
- Jordi Cano4 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Girona carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.51 for FC Andorra. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.12 goals for Girona and 1.04 for FC Andorra. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Girona rate 0.83 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Andorra rate 0.83 and 1.67.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Girona a 8.7% chance of the title and FC Andorra 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Girona the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Girona against 1.04 for FC Andorra. Girona's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.67 for FC Andorra.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Girona at home · FC Andorra away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Girona 7, FC Andorra 7.
Girona score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); FC Andorra have let in 6 there.
FC Andorra score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Girona have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Girona
- vs Celta de Vigo II25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 52%
- at Real Sociedad II1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 39%
- vs Almeria8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 42%
FC Andorra
- vs Burgos25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
- at Tenerife1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 32%
- vs Mallorca8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.