Chadormalu SC
vs
Foolad FC
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Chadormalu SC 2–1 Foolad FC
The model makes it 38% Chadormalu SC, 28% draw, 34% Foolad FC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Chadormalu SC 1.42, Foolad FC 1.32.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 940 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Chadormalu SC's rating is built from 33 Persian Gulf Pro League matches and Foolad FC's from 31, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Chadormalu SC are 9th on 12 points from 9 games; Foolad FC are 5th on 16 points from 9 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Chadormalu SC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to ZOB Ahan.
- Foolad FC are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Nassaji Mazandaran.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 January 2026, ended Foolad FC 0–0 Chadormalu SC.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chadormalu SC vs Foolad FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chadormalu SC at 38% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 3,435 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Chadormalu SC vs Foolad FC
Chadormalu SC
Persian Gulf Pro League
- W2-1away to ZOB Ahan18 October 2026
- D2-2Kheybar Khorramabad9 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sanat Naft12 September 2026
- W1-0Shams Azar Qazvin6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Esteghlal Khuzestan1 September 2026
Foolad FC
Persian Gulf Pro League
- D0-0Nassaji Mazandaran18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Malavan13 October 2026
- W2-1Mes Shahr-e Babak8 October 2026
- W1-0Fajr Sepasi7 September 2026
- L0-2away to Kheybar Khorramabad2 September 2026
What these results say
- Chadormalu SC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Chadormalu SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chadormalu SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Chadormalu SC | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 12 |
| 5 | Foolad FC | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Chadormalu SC vs Foolad FC
- 16 January 2026Foolad FC 0–0 Chadormalu SCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 20 December 2025Foolad FC 2–0 Chadormalu SCHazfi Cup
- 19 August 2025Chadormalu SC 1–0 Foolad FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 1 May 2025Chadormalu SC 1–1 Foolad FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 19 December 2024Foolad FC 2–1 Chadormalu SCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 8 February 2024Foolad FC 0–1 Chadormalu SCHazfi Cup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Chadormalu SC carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.49 for Foolad FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Chadormalu SC and 1.32 for Foolad FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chadormalu SC rate 0.66 in attack and 1.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Foolad FC rate 0.64 and 1.32.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Foolad FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chadormalu SC a 0% chance of the title and Foolad FC 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chadormalu SC the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Chadormalu SC against 1.32 for Foolad FC. Chadormalu SC's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.32 for Foolad FC.
How the model reaches 38% for Chadormalu SC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Chadormalu SC to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Chadormalu SC's ratings take away 23 points and Foolad FC's ratings add 17 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Chadormalu SC's ratings21%−23
- Foolad FC's ratings38%+17
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chadormalu SC at home · Foolad FC away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Chadormalu SC 9, Foolad FC 9.
Chadormalu SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Foolad FC have let in 1 there.
Foolad FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Chadormalu SC have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.