Ittihad Tanger
vs
CR Khemis Zemamra
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: Ittihad Tanger 1–0 CR Khemis Zemamra
The model makes it 46% Ittihad Tanger, 28% draw, 26% CR Khemis Zemamra — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Ittihad Tanger 1.58, CR Khemis Zemamra 1.05.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,012 settled matches.
Edge to Ittihad Tanger: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Ittihad Tanger's rating is built from 34 Botola Pro matches and CR Khemis Zemamra's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 518 matches.
Key facts
- Ittihad Tanger are 4th on 7 points from 4 games; CR Khemis Zemamra are bottom on 1 point from 4 games — Botola Pro.
- Ittihad Tanger have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Maghreb Fès.
- CR Khemis Zemamra have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Renaissance Berkane.
- Last 6 meetings: CR Khemis Zemamra 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 June 2026, ended Ittihad Tanger 1–0 CR Khemis Zemamra.
More Botola Pro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ittihad Tanger vs CR Khemis Zemamra
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ittihad Tanger at 46% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ittihad Tanger vs CR Khemis Zemamra
Ittihad Tanger
- W2-1Maghreb Fès14 October 2026
- L1-2away to Kawkab Marrakech10 October 2026
- D1-1Moghreb Tetouan2 October 2026
- W3-1away to Amal Tiznit24 September 2026
CR Khemis Zemamra
- D2-2away to Renaissance Berkane13 October 2026
- L2-5Hassania Agadir8 October 2026
- L0-1away to Raja Casablanca3 October 2026
- L1-2away to Maghreb Fès27 September 2026
What these results say
- Ittihad Tanger scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Ittihad Tanger conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Ittihad Tanger.
- CR Khemis Zemamra did not win any of these 4 matches.
- CR Khemis Zemamra conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- CR Khemis Zemamra scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ittihad Tanger | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
| 16 | CR Khemis Zemamra | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ittihad Tanger vs CR Khemis Zemamra
- 21 June 2026Ittihad Tanger 1–0 CR Khemis ZemamraBotola Pro
- 8 February 2026CR Khemis Zemamra 1–0 Ittihad TangerBotola Pro
- 23 February 2025CR Khemis Zemamra 2–0 Ittihad TangerBotola Pro
- 23 October 2024Ittihad Tanger 0–1 CR Khemis ZemamraBotola Pro
- 1 June 2024CR Khemis Zemamra 0–1 Ittihad TangerBotola Pro
- 3 January 2024Ittihad Tanger 1–1 CR Khemis ZemamraBotola Pro
The two sides
Ittihad Tanger carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.21 for CR Khemis Zemamra. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Ittihad Tanger and 1.05 for CR Khemis Zemamra. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ittihad Tanger rate 0.60 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CR Khemis Zemamra rate 0.58 and 2.12.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,088 correct results out of 4,337 settled predictions (48%), with 440 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ittihad Tanger the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Ittihad Tanger against 1.05 for CR Khemis Zemamra. Ittihad Tanger's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/2.12 for CR Khemis Zemamra.
Season stats
Ittihad Tanger at home · CR Khemis Zemamra away
League matches only, Botola Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Ittihad TangerCR Khemis Zemamra
Ittihad Tanger are 2nd after 4 Botola Pro matches (between 1st and 5th so far); CR Khemis Zemamra are 16th after 4 (between 12th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Botola Pro matches this season: Ittihad Tanger 4, CR Khemis Zemamra 4.
Ittihad Tanger score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); CR Khemis Zemamra have let in 2 there.
CR Khemis Zemamra score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Ittihad Tanger have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Ittihad Tanger
- at Raja Casablanca8 Nov · Botola Prowin 27%
CR Khemis Zemamra
- vs Widad Témara8 Nov · Botola Prowin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.