FAR Rabat
vs
Raja Casablanca
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: FAR Rabat 1–0 Raja Casablanca
The model makes it 35% FAR Rabat, 32% draw, 33% Raja Casablanca — fair odds of 2.86, 3.13 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FAR Rabat 1.08, Raja Casablanca 1.03.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 930 settled matches.
A tight game: FAR Rabat and Raja Casablanca are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. FAR Rabat's rating is built from 32 Botola Pro matches and Raja Casablanca's from 33, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 518 matches.
Key facts
- FAR Rabat are 10th on 4 points from 2 games; Raja Casablanca are 8th on 5 points from 3 games — Botola Pro.
- Raja Casablanca are unbeaten in their last 3 games (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to FUS Rabat.
- Last 6 meetings: FAR Rabat 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 30 April 2026, ended FAR Rabat 2–1 Raja Casablanca.
More Botola Pro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FAR Rabat vs Raja Casablanca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FAR Rabat at 35% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 3,397 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FAR Rabat vs Raja Casablanca
FAR Rabat
- D2-2away to Hassania Agadir12 October 2026
- W1-0Widad Témara8 October 2026
Raja Casablanca
- D1-1away to FUS Rabat13 October 2026
- D0-0away to Maghreb Fès8 October 2026
- W1-0CR Khemis Zemamra3 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | FAR Rabat | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 | Raja Casablanca | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FAR Rabat vs Raja Casablanca
- 30 April 2026FAR Rabat 2–1 Raja CasablancaBotola Pro
- 17 September 2025Raja Casablanca 0–0 FAR RabatBotola Pro
- 23 February 2025FAR Rabat 0–0 Raja CasablancaBotola Pro
- 11 January 2025FAR Rabat 1–1 Raja CasablancaCAF Champions League
- 26 November 2024Raja Casablanca 0–2 FAR RabatCAF Champions League
- 22 October 2024Raja Casablanca 0–0 FAR RabatBotola Pro
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FAR Rabat carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.5 for Raja Casablanca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for FAR Rabat and 1.03 for Raja Casablanca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FAR Rabat rate 0.69 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Raja Casablanca rate 0.61 and 1.26.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Raja Casablanca, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FAR Rabat the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for FAR Rabat against 1.03 for Raja Casablanca. FAR Rabat's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.26 for Raja Casablanca.
Next match, by difficulty
FAR Rabat
- vs Difaa EL Jadida8 Nov · Botola Prowin 50%
Raja Casablanca
- vs Ittihad Tanger8 Nov · Botola Prowin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.