Persepolis FC
vs
Fajr Sepasi
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Persepolis FC 2–0 Fajr Sepasi
The model makes it 69% Persepolis FC, 18% draw, 13% Fajr Sepasi — fair odds of 1.45, 5.56 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Persepolis FC 2.72, Fajr Sepasi 0.93.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,455 settled matches.
One-sided: Persepolis FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Persepolis FC's rating is built from 32 Persian Gulf Pro League matches and Fajr Sepasi's from 32, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Persepolis FC are top on 20 points from 9 games; Fajr Sepasi are 8th on 13 points from 9 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Persepolis FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Mes Shahr-e Babak.
- Fajr Sepasi have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Paykan.
- Last 4 meetings: Persepolis FC 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 January 2026, ended Fajr Sepasi 2–1 Persepolis FC.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Persepolis FC vs Fajr Sepasi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Persepolis FC at 69% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 358 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.6%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Persepolis FC vs Fajr Sepasi
Persepolis FC
Persian Gulf Pro League
- W3-0away to Mes Shahr-e Babak19 October 2026
- D0-0away to Kheybar Khorramabad14 October 2026
- W3-1Sanat Naft9 October 2026
- W2-0ZOB Ahan7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Esteghlal FC2 September 2026
Fajr Sepasi
Persian Gulf Pro League
- W2-0Paykan19 October 2026
- W2-1Aluminium Arak13 October 2026
- L1-6away to Sepahan FC8 October 2026
- L0-1away to Foolad FC7 September 2026
- D1-1Mes Shahr-e Babak3 September 2026
What these results say
- Persepolis FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Persepolis FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fajr Sepasi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fajr Sepasi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persepolis FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 20 |
| 8 | Fajr Sepasi | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Persepolis FC vs Fajr Sepasi
- 18 January 2026Fajr Sepasi 2–1 Persepolis FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 18 August 2025Persepolis FC 1–1 Fajr SepasiPersian Gulf Pro League
- 2 June 2022Fajr Sepasi 0–1 Persepolis FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 13 January 2022Persepolis FC 1–0 Fajr SepasiPersian Gulf Pro League
The two sides
Persepolis FC carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.29 for Fajr Sepasi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.72 goals for Persepolis FC and 0.93 for Fajr Sepasi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Persepolis FC rate 0.88 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fajr Sepasi rate 0.62 and 1.90.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Persepolis FC a 48.7% chance of the title and Fajr Sepasi 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Persepolis FC the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.72 expected goals for Persepolis FC against 0.93 for Fajr Sepasi. Persepolis FC's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.9 for Fajr Sepasi.
How the model reaches 69% for Persepolis FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Persepolis FC to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Persepolis FC's ratings take away 9 points and Fajr Sepasi's ratings add 34 points, which lands on the published 69%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Persepolis FC's ratings35%−9
- Fajr Sepasi's ratings69%+34
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Persepolis FC at home · Fajr Sepasi away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Persepolis FC 9, Fajr Sepasi 9.
Fajr Sepasi score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Persepolis FC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.