Utrecht
vs
PEC Zwolle
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Utrecht 2–1 PEC Zwolle
The model makes it 60% Utrecht, 22% draw, 18% PEC Zwolle — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Utrecht 2.38, PEC Zwolle 1.12.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Utrecht: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Utrecht are 13th on 8 points from 8 games; PEC Zwolle are 16th on 4 points from 8 games — Eredivisie.
- Utrecht have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Willem II.
- PEC Zwolle have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Cambuur.
- Last 6 meetings: Utrecht 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 February 2026, ended Utrecht 1–1 PEC Zwolle.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Utrecht at 60% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle
Utrecht
- W3-1Willem II11 October 2026
- L0-5away to Feyenoord20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Excelsior13 September 2026
- D3-3GO Ahead Eagles8 September 2026
- L1-6PSV Eindhoven30 August 2026
PEC Zwolle
- L0-1Cambuur11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Groningen18 September 2026
- L0-7Feyenoord13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Sparta Rotterdam4 September 2026
- L1-3NEC Nijmegen29 August 2026
What these results say
- Utrecht conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Utrecht had three goals or more.
- Utrecht scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- PEC Zwolle did not win any of these 5 matches.
- PEC Zwolle conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PEC Zwolle had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 8 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Utrecht
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
PEC Zwolle
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 67% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle
- 22 February 2026Utrecht 1–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 31 August 2025PEC Zwolle 0–2 UtrechtEredivisie
- 1 February 2025PEC Zwolle 3–3 UtrechtEredivisie
- 11 August 2024Utrecht 1–0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 3 April 2024Utrecht 5–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 27 August 2023PEC Zwolle 1–0 UtrechtEredivisie
Leading scorers: Utrecht and PEC Zwolle
Utrecht
GoalsAssists
- Artem Stepanov50
PEC Zwolle
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Utrecht carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.39 for PEC Zwolle. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.38 goals for Utrecht and 1.12 for PEC Zwolle. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Utrecht rate 0.87 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PEC Zwolle rate 0.59 and 1.49.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Utrecht the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Utrecht against 1.12 for PEC Zwolle. Utrecht's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.49 for PEC Zwolle.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Utrecht at home · PEC Zwolle away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
UtrechtPEC Zwolle
Utrecht are 12th after 8 Eredivisie matches (between 12th and 16th so far); PEC Zwolle are 16th after 8 (between 13th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Utrecht 8, PEC Zwolle 8.
Utrecht score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); PEC Zwolle have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Utrecht
- at Telstar1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 35%
- vs NEC Nijmegen8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 39%
- vs Cambuur21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 54%
- at ADO Den Haag29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 41%
PEC Zwolle
- vs FC OSS28 Oct · KNVB Bekerwin 48%
- vs ADO Den Haag1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 38%
- at Willem II6 Nov · Eredivisiewin 34%
- at Telstar21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 22%
- vs AZ Alkmaar29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 17%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.