Telstar
vs
Feyenoord
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Telstar 1–2 Feyenoord
The model makes it 23% Telstar, 27% draw, 50% Feyenoord — fair odds of 4.35, 3.70 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Telstar 1.03, Feyenoord 2.02.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Telstar are 13th on 5 points from 7 games; Feyenoord are 2nd on 17 points from 7 games — Eredivisie.
- Telstar have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to AZ Alkmaar.
- Feyenoord are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 5-0 win at home to Utrecht.
- Last 2 meetings: Feyenoord 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 22 February 2026, ended Feyenoord 2–1 Telstar.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Telstar vs Feyenoord
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Feyenoord at 50% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Telstar vs Feyenoord
Telstar
- L0-1away to AZ Alkmaar20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Heerenveen13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Twente9 September 2026
- D2-2Cambuur6 September 2026
- L0-4Ajax30 August 2026
Feyenoord
- W5-0Utrecht20 September 2026
- W7-0away to PEC Zwolle13 September 2026
- W3-1away to NEC Nijmegen5 September 2026
- D2-2ADO Den Haag30 August 2026
- W5-2away to Cambuur23 August 2026
What these results say
- Telstar did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Telstar failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Telstar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Feyenoord went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Feyenoord scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Feyenoord had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Telstar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 7 | +18 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Telstar vs Feyenoord
- 22 February 2026Feyenoord 2–1 TelstarEredivisie
- 30 November 2025Telstar 1–2 FeyenoordEredivisie
Leading scorers: Telstar and Feyenoord
Telstar
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Feyenoord
- G. Zechiël5 goals4 assists
- A. Hadj-Moussa5 goals1 assist
- L. Valente4 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Telstar carry a model rating of 6.61 against 7.04 for Feyenoord. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.03 goals for Telstar and 2.02 for Feyenoord. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Telstar rate 0.66 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Feyenoord rate 1.25 and 0.85.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Telstar a 0% chance of the title and Feyenoord 25%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Feyenoord the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Telstar against 2.02 for Feyenoord. Telstar's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.25/0.85 for Feyenoord.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Telstar at home · Feyenoord away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Telstar 7, Feyenoord 7.
Telstar score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Feyenoord have let in 2 there.
Feyenoord score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Telstar have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Telstar
- at GO Ahead Eagles23 Oct · Eredivisiewin 27%
- vs Utrecht1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 38%
- at Fortuna Sittard7 Nov · Eredivisiewin 31%
- vs PEC Zwolle21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 47%
Feyenoord
- at Real Betis21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 29%
- at PSV Eindhoven25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 31%
- vs Fortuna Sittard31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 62%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.