ADO Den Haag
vs
PSV Eindhoven
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: ADO Den Haag 1–3 PSV Eindhoven
The model makes it 17% ADO Den Haag, 21% draw, 62% PSV Eindhoven — fair odds of 5.88, 4.76 and 1.61. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-3 (8%).
Expected goals: ADO Den Haag 1.10, PSV Eindhoven 3.06.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- ADO Den Haag are 17th on 2 points from 7 games; PSV Eindhoven are 3rd on 16 points from 7 games — Eredivisie.
- ADO Den Haag have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Cambuur.
- PSV Eindhoven have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Twente.
- Last 6 meetings: PSV Eindhoven 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 March 2023, ended PSV Eindhoven 3–1 ADO Den Haag.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PSV Eindhoven at 62% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven
ADO Den Haag
- D1-1Cambuur19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Twente12 September 2026
- L2-3Fortuna Sittard6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Feyenoord30 August 2026
- L1-3away to GO Ahead Eagles23 August 2026
PSV Eindhoven
- L2-3away to Twente20 September 2026
- W4-1Sparta Rotterdam13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Ajax5 September 2026
- W6-1away to Utrecht30 August 2026
- W5-1Groningen23 August 2026
What these results say
- ADO Den Haag did not win any of these 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for PSV Eindhoven had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 2 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven
- 2 March 2023PSV Eindhoven 3–1 ADO Den HaagKNVB Beker
- 13 February 2021ADO Den Haag 2–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 1 November 2020PSV Eindhoven 4–0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 15 February 2020ADO Den Haag 0–3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 11 August 2019PSV Eindhoven 3–1 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 21 April 2019PSV Eindhoven 3–1 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
Leading scorers: ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven
ADO Den Haag
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
PSV Eindhoven
- S. Mijnans4 goals1 assist
- G. Til4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
ADO Den Haag carry a model rating of 6.45 against 7.09 for PSV Eindhoven. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for ADO Den Haag and 3.06 for PSV Eindhoven. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
ADO Den Haag rate 0.63 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PSV Eindhoven rate 1.48 and 0.95.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ADO Den Haag a 0% chance of the title and PSV Eindhoven 44%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PSV Eindhoven the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for ADO Den Haag against 3.06 for PSV Eindhoven. ADO Den Haag's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.48/0.95 for PSV Eindhoven.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
ADO Den Haag at home · PSV Eindhoven away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: ADO Den Haag 7, PSV Eindhoven 7.
ADO Den Haag score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); PSV Eindhoven have let in 1 there.
PSV Eindhoven score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); ADO Den Haag have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
ADO Den Haag
- vs Heerenveen24 Oct · Eredivisiewin 29%
- at PEC Zwolle1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 33%
- vs Sparta Rotterdam7 Nov · Eredivisiewin 38%
- at Ajax22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 14%
PSV Eindhoven
- at FC Porto20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 21%
- vs Feyenoord25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 44%
- vs Willem II31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 78%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.