Willem II
vs
Cambuur
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Willem II 1–2 Cambuur
The model makes it 34% Willem II, 25% draw, 41% Cambuur — fair odds of 2.94, 4.00 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Willem II 1.56, Cambuur 1.78.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Cambuur: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Willem II are bottom on 2 points from 8 games; Cambuur are 12th on 8 points from 8 games — Eredivisie.
- Willem II have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Utrecht.
- Cambuur are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to PEC Zwolle.
- Last 5 meetings: Cambuur 2 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 12 December 2025, ended Willem II 0–1 Cambuur.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Willem II vs Cambuur
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cambuur at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Willem II vs Cambuur
Willem II
- L1-3away to Utrecht11 October 2026
- L0-1Fortuna Sittard19 September 2026
- L1-5away to Ajax15 September 2026
- D1-1away to AZ Alkmaar11 September 2026
- L0-3Excelsior5 September 2026
Cambuur
- W1-0away to PEC Zwolle11 October 2026
- D1-1away to ADO Den Haag19 September 2026
- W3-0NEC Nijmegen12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Telstar6 September 2026
- L1-4Twente30 August 2026
What these results say
- Willem II did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Willem II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cambuur scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 23 | -16 | 2 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Willem II
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 86% today
Cambuur
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Cambuur vs Willem II
Cambuur and Willem II have met 5 times in the records we hold, Cambuur has won 2 of them to Willem II's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
Cambuur won the last one 1–0 on 12 Dec 2025.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambuur | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 |
| Willem II | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Between them these 5 meetings produced 10 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 12 Dec 2025
Eerste DivisieWillem II 0–1 Cambuur - 6 Sep 2025
Eerste DivisieCambuur 2–2 Willem II - 2 Feb 2024
Eerste DivisieWillem II 1–1 Cambuur - 17 Sep 2023
Eerste DivisieCambuur 1–0 Willem II - 11 May 2022
EredivisieCambuur 1–1 Willem II
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Willem II and Cambuur
Willem II
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Cambuur
GoalsAssists
- R. El Arguioui40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Willem II carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.5 for Cambuur. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Willem II and 1.78 for Cambuur. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Willem II rate 0.58 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cambuur rate 0.73 and 1.47.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cambuur the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Willem II against 1.78 for Cambuur. Willem II's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.47 for Cambuur.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Willem II at home · Cambuur away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Willem IICambuur
Willem II are 18th after 8 Eredivisie matches (between 15th and 18th so far); Cambuur are 12th after 8 (between 12th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Willem II 8, Cambuur 8.
Willem II score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Cambuur have let in 4 there.
Cambuur score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Willem II have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Willem II
- at Helmond Sport27 Oct · KNVB Bekerwin 35%
- at PSV Eindhoven31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 4%
- vs PEC Zwolle6 Nov · Eredivisiewin 39%
- at Twente22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 8%
- at Groningen27 Nov · Eredivisiewin 12%
Cambuur
- vs GO Ahead Eagles31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 32%
- vs PSV Eindhoven8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 13%
- at Utrecht21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 24%
- vs Sparta Rotterdam28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.