Sparta Rotterdam
vs
Willem II
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 Willem II
The model makes it 47% Sparta Rotterdam, 27% draw, 26% Willem II — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 2.01, Willem II 1.19.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Sparta Rotterdam are 12th on 5 points from 7 games; Willem II are bottom on 2 points from 7 games — Eredivisie.
- Sparta Rotterdam have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Heerenveen.
- Willem II have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Fortuna Sittard.
- Last 6 meetings: Sparta Rotterdam 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 December 2025, ended Willem II 1–5 Sparta Rotterdam.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Rotterdam at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II
Sparta Rotterdam
- L0-4Heerenveen19 September 2026
- L1-4away to PSV Eindhoven13 September 2026
- D2-2PEC Zwolle4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Excelsior29 August 2026
- D3-3Utrecht22 August 2026
Willem II
- L0-1Fortuna Sittard19 September 2026
- L1-5away to Ajax15 September 2026
- D1-1away to AZ Alkmaar11 September 2026
- L0-3Excelsior5 September 2026
- D2-2Heerenveen30 August 2026
What these results say
- Sparta Rotterdam did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sparta Rotterdam conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Sparta Rotterdam had three goals or more.
- Willem II did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Willem II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II
- 18 December 2025Willem II 1–5 Sparta RotterdamKNVB Beker
- 26 July 2025Willem II 3–1 Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs
- 2 March 2025Sparta Rotterdam 4–0 Willem IIEredivisie
- 31 August 2024Willem II 1–2 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 27 July 2024Willem II 2–4 Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs
- 29 July 2023Willem II 0–3 Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II
Sparta Rotterdam
- M. Zonneveld4 goals1 assist
Willem II
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sparta Rotterdam carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.35 for Willem II. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.01 goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.19 for Willem II. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sparta Rotterdam rate 0.68 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Willem II rate 0.59 and 1.61.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sparta Rotterdam the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam against 1.19 for Willem II. Sparta Rotterdam's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.61 for Willem II.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sparta Rotterdam at home · Willem II away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Sparta Rotterdam 7, Willem II 7.
Willem II score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Sparta Rotterdam have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sparta Rotterdam
- vs Ajax25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 22%
- at Groningen1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 23%
- at ADO Den Haag7 Nov · Eredivisiewin 34%
- vs AZ Alkmaar22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 24%
Willem II
- vs Cambuur24 Oct · Eredivisiewin 35%
- at PSV Eindhoven31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 8%
- vs PEC Zwolle6 Nov · Eredivisiewin 38%
- at Twente22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 13%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.