Dinamo Bucuresti
vs
Petrolul Ploiesti
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Bucuresti 1–0 Petrolul Ploiesti
The model makes it 58% Dinamo Bucuresti, 25% draw, 17% Petrolul Ploiesti — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Dinamo Bucuresti 1.87, Petrolul Ploiesti 0.77.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Dinamo Bucuresti: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Dinamo Bucuresti's rating is built from 56 Romanian Liga I matches and Petrolul Ploiesti's from 54, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 760 matches.
Key facts
- Dinamo Bucuresti are 2nd on 33 points from 15 games; Petrolul Ploiesti are 4th on 27 points from 15 games — Liga I.
- Dinamo Bucuresti have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Arges Pitesti.
- Petrolul Ploiesti are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Uta Arad.
- Last 6 meetings: Dinamo Bucuresti 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 July 2026, ended Petrolul Ploiesti 1–0 Dinamo Bucuresti.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dinamo Bucuresti vs Petrolul Ploiesti
Has the model earned this number?
Dinamo Bucuresti at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dinamo Bucuresti vs Petrolul Ploiesti
Dinamo Bucuresti
Liga I
- L1-2away to Arges Pitesti6 November 2026
- W2-0Uta Arad1 November 2026
- D2-2away to CFR 1907 Cluj25 October 2026
- W2-0FC Botosani16 October 2026
- W2-0away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe9 October 2026
Petrolul Ploiesti
Liga I
- W1-0away to Uta Arad6 November 2026
- D1-1CFR 1907 Cluj31 October 2026
- W3-1away to FC Botosani23 October 2026
- D1-1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Farul Constanta11 October 2026
What these results say
- Dinamo Bucuresti scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Petrolul Ploiesti scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Petrolul Ploiesti conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Petrolul Ploiesti.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 11 | +21 | 33 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dinamo Bucuresti
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 27% today
Petrolul Ploiesti
Chance to finish in the top six · 57% today
From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Dinamo Bucuresti vs Petrolul Ploiesti
- 19 July 2026Petrolul Ploiesti 1–0 Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
- 30 January 2026Dinamo Bucuresti 1–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 15 September 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 0–3 Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
- 18 December 2024Dinamo Bucuresti 0–0 Petrolul PloiestiCupa României
- 24 November 2024Petrolul Ploiesti 0–1 Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
- 21 July 2024Dinamo Bucuresti 4–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
Leading scorers: Dinamo Bucuresti and Petrolul Ploiesti
Dinamo Bucuresti
GoalsAssists
- D. Armstrong610
- Martín Pascual50
- Alberto Soro44
Petrolul Ploiesti
GoalsAssists
- A. Bran43
- Rodrigo Martins42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dinamo Bucuresti a 26.5% chance of the title and Petrolul Ploiesti 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Bucuresti the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Dinamo Bucuresti against 0.77 for Petrolul Ploiesti. Dinamo Bucuresti's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.51 for Petrolul Ploiesti.
How the model reaches 58% for Dinamo Bucuresti to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dinamo Bucuresti to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Dinamo Bucuresti's ratings add 8 points and Petrolul Ploiesti's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Dinamo Bucuresti's ratings51%+8
- Petrolul Ploiesti's ratings58%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Dinamo Bucuresti at home · Petrolul Ploiesti away
League matches only, Liga I, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Dinamo BucurestiPetrolul Ploiesti
Dinamo Bucuresti are 2nd after 15 Liga I matches (between 1st and 14th so far); Petrolul Ploiesti are 4th after 15 (between 2nd and 13th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Dinamo Bucuresti 15, Petrolul Ploiesti 15.
Dinamo Bucuresti score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Petrolul Ploiesti have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Dinamo Bucuresti
- at Universitatea Craiova28 Nov · Liga Iwin 21%
- vs Oțelul5 Dec · Liga Iwin 64%
- at FC Voluntari12 Dec · Liga Iwin 59%
- vs Rapid19 Dec · Liga Iwin 48%
- at Universitatea Cluj16 Jan · Liga Iwin 34%
Petrolul Ploiesti
- vs Arges Pitesti28 Nov · Liga Iwin 43%
- vs Universitatea Craiova5 Dec · Liga Iwin 21%
- at Oțelul12 Dec · Liga Iwin 31%
- vs FC Voluntari19 Dec · Liga Iwin 57%
- at Rapid16 Jan · Liga Iwin 20%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.