Olympique Akbou
vs
Témouchent
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Olympique Akbou 1–0 Témouchent
The model makes it 57% Olympique Akbou, 26% draw, 17% Témouchent — fair odds of 1.75, 3.85 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Olympique Akbou 1.77, Témouchent 0.75.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,493 settled matches.
Edge to Olympique Akbou: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Olympique Akbou's rating is built from 36 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and Témouchent's from 6, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Olympique Akbou are 6th on 10 points from 6 games; Témouchent are 13th on 5 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Olympique Akbou are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to CS Constantine.
- Témouchent are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to ASO Chlef.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Olympique Akbou vs Témouchent
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olympique Akbou at 57% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Olympique Akbou vs Témouchent
Olympique Akbou
Ligue 1
- W3-0CS Constantine23 October 2026
- W2-1Ben Aknoun16 October 2026
- D0-0away to JS Saoura8 October 2026
- L2-3USM Alger19 September 2026
- L0-2away to MB Rouisset12 September 2026
Témouchent
Ligue 1
- D1-1ASO Chlef18 October 2026
- L0-2MB Rouisset14 October 2026
- L0-1away to MC Alger9 October 2026
- W1-0JS Kabylie17 September 2026
- L0-2away to MC Oran11 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Témouchent had two goals or fewer.
- Témouchent failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Témouchent conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Olympique Akbou | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 13 | Témouchent | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Olympique Akbou carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.08 for Témouchent. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Olympique Akbou and 0.75 for Témouchent. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Olympique Akbou rate 0.58 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Témouchent rate 0.39 and 1.88.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Olympique Akbou a 3.4% chance of the title and Témouchent 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olympique Akbou the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Olympique Akbou against 0.75 for Témouchent. Olympique Akbou's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.88 for Témouchent.
How the model reaches 57% for Olympique Akbou to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Olympique Akbou to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Olympique Akbou's ratings take away 24 points and Témouchent's ratings add 37 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Olympique Akbou's ratings20%−24
- Témouchent's ratings57%+37
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Olympique Akbou at home · Témouchent away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Olympique Akbou 6, Témouchent 6.
Olympique Akbou score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Témouchent have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Olympique Akbou
- at ASO Chlef21 Nov · Ligue 1win 38%
Témouchent
- at Khenchela8 Nov · Ligue 1win 20%
- vs USM Alger21 Nov · Ligue 1win 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.