Regular Season - 7 · 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Khenchela vs JS Kabylie Ligue 1 prediction

Our model says: Khenchela 1–0 JS Kabylie

The model makes it 40% Khenchela, 29% draw, 31% JS Kabylie — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Khenchela 1.35, JS Kabylie 1.15.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Khenchela are 10th on 5 points from 4 games; JS Kabylie are 7th on 7 points from 4 games — Ligue 1.
  • Khenchela have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to CS Constantine.
  • JS Kabylie have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to ES Setif.
  • Last 6 meetings: JS Kabylie 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 March 2026, ended Khenchela 2–1 JS Kabylie.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Khenchela vs JS Kabylie

51%
Both teams to score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Khenchela win Draw JS Kabylie win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 0–09%
  4. 0–19%
  5. 2–19%
  6. 2–07%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Khenchela first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 36%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Khenchela at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Khenchela vs JS Kabylie

Khenchela

  • W2-0CS Constantine12 October 2026
  • L0-1away to CR Belouizdad7 October 2026
  • D1-1Ben Aknoun18 September 2026
  • D0-0USM Alger4 September 2026

JS Kabylie

  • D1-1away to ES Setif14 October 2026
  • W1-0ASO Chlef9 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Témouchent17 September 2026
  • W1-0MB Rouisset4 September 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 4 matches for Khenchela had two goals or fewer.
  • Khenchela failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for JS Kabylie had two goals or fewer.
  • JS Kabylie scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Khenchela412132+15
7JS Kabylie421132+17

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Khenchela vs JS Kabylie

  • 13 March 2026Khenchela 2–1 JS KabylieLigue 1
  • 21 October 2025JS Kabylie 1–0 KhenchelaLigue 1
  • 4 April 2025Khenchela 0–1 JS KabylieLigue 1
  • 26 October 2024JS Kabylie 1–0 KhenchelaLigue 1
  • 24 February 2024JS Kabylie 0–0 KhenchelaLigue 1
  • 29 September 2023Khenchela 2–1 JS KabylieLigue 1

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Khenchela carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.36 for JS Kabylie. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Khenchela and 1.15 for JS Kabylie. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Khenchela rate 0.54 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; JS Kabylie rate 0.58 and 1.54.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour JS Kabylie, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Khenchela the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Khenchela against 1.15 for JS Kabylie. Khenchela's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.54 for JS Kabylie.

Season stats

KhenchelaJS Kabylie
4Matches3
1W 2D 1LRecord2W 0D 1L
3 0.8 per gameGoals scored2 0.7 per game
2 0.5 per gameGoals conceded1 0.3 per game
2 of 4Clean sheets2 of 3
2 of 4Failed to score1 of 3
–Penalties scored1 of 1
4 1.0 per gameYellow cards7 2.3 per game

Khenchela at home · JS Kabylie away

3Played1
1W 2D 0LRecord0W 0D 1L
3–1Goals for – against0–1
2 of 3Clean sheets0 of 1

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: Khenchela 4, JS Kabylie 3.

Khenchela scored 001110
JS Kabylie conceded 000010
JS Kabylie scored 101000
Khenchela conceded 000002

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

Khenchela

JS Kabylie

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.