USM Alger
vs
CR Belouizdad
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: USM Alger 2–1 CR Belouizdad
The model makes it 36% USM Alger, 28% draw, 36% CR Belouizdad — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: USM Alger 1.39, CR Belouizdad 1.40.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: USM Alger and CR Belouizdad are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- USM Alger are 3rd on 10 points from 5 games; CR Belouizdad are top on 13 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- USM Alger have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to JS Saoura.
- CR Belouizdad are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-2 win away to JS El Biar.
- Last 6 meetings: USM Alger 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 2 June 2026, ended USM Alger 1–1 CR Belouizdad.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: USM Alger vs CR Belouizdad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts USM Alger at 36% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into USM Alger vs CR Belouizdad
USM Alger
- W1-0JS Saoura13 October 2026
- L0-1away to MB Rouisset8 October 2026
- W3-2away to Olympique Akbou19 September 2026
- W2-0JS El Biar10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Khenchela4 September 2026
CR Belouizdad
- W3-2away to JS El Biar12 October 2026
- W1-0Khenchela7 October 2026
- W1-0away to US Biskra17 September 2026
- W1-0ES Setif11 September 2026
- D3-3away to ASO Chlef5 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for USM Alger had two goals or fewer.
- CR Belouizdad went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- CR Belouizdad scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CR Belouizdad won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | USM Alger | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 1 | CR Belouizdad | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: USM Alger vs CR Belouizdad
- 2 June 2026USM Alger 1–1 CR BelouizdadLigue 1
- 30 April 2026USM Alger 2–1 CR BelouizdadCoupe Nationale
- 8 November 2025CR Belouizdad 0–0 USM AlgerLigue 1
- 5 July 2025USM Alger 2–0 CR BelouizdadCoupe Nationale
- 16 March 2025CR Belouizdad 1–1 USM AlgerLigue 1
- 18 October 2024USM Alger 0–0 CR BelouizdadLigue 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
USM Alger carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.52 for CR Belouizdad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for USM Alger and 1.40 for CR Belouizdad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
USM Alger rate 0.58 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CR Belouizdad rate 0.76 and 1.47.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour CR Belouizdad, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives USM Alger the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for USM Alger against 1.40 for CR Belouizdad. USM Alger's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.47 for CR Belouizdad.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
USM Alger at home · CR Belouizdad away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: USM Alger 5, CR Belouizdad 5.
USM Alger score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); CR Belouizdad have let in 1 there.
CR Belouizdad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); USM Alger have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
USM Alger
- at JS Kabylie31 Oct · Ligue 1win 28%
- vs MC Alger7 Nov · Ligue 1win 36%
CR Belouizdad
- at MB Rouisset31 Oct · Ligue 1win 39%
- vs CS Constantine7 Nov · Ligue 1win 61%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.