JS El Biar
vs
ASO Chlef
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: JS El Biar 2–1 ASO Chlef
The model makes it 58% JS El Biar, 22% draw, 20% ASO Chlef — fair odds of 1.72, 4.55 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: JS El Biar 2.32, ASO Chlef 1.18.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,493 settled matches.
Edge to JS El Biar: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. JS El Biar's rating is built from 7 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and ASO Chlef's from 36, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- JS El Biar are 7th on 8 points from 7 games; ASO Chlef are 14th on 3 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- JS El Biar have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to MC Oran.
- ASO Chlef have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Témouchent.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: JS El Biar vs ASO Chlef
Has the model earned this number?
It puts JS El Biar at 58% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into JS El Biar vs ASO Chlef
JS El Biar
Ligue 1
- D0-0MC Oran23 October 2026
- W4-2away to CS Constantine17 October 2026
- L2-3CR Belouizdad12 October 2026
- D2-2away to Ben Aknoun7 October 2026
- W4-0JS Saoura18 September 2026
ASO Chlef
Ligue 1
- D1-1away to Témouchent18 October 2026
- D1-1MC Alger13 October 2026
- L0-1away to JS Kabylie9 October 2026
- L0-1MC Oran18 September 2026
- L0-3away to CS Constantine12 September 2026
What these results say
- JS El Biar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for JS El Biar had three goals or more.
- ASO Chlef did not win any of these 5 matches.
- ASO Chlef conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for ASO Chlef had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | JS El Biar | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 8 |
| 14 | ASO Chlef | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
JS El Biar carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.14 for ASO Chlef. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.32 goals for JS El Biar and 1.18 for ASO Chlef. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
JS El Biar rate 0.74 in attack and 2.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; ASO Chlef rate 0.47 and 1.93.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives JS El Biar a 1.4% chance of the title and ASO Chlef 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives JS El Biar the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.32 expected goals for JS El Biar against 1.18 for ASO Chlef. JS El Biar's attack/defence rating is 0.74/2.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.93 for ASO Chlef.
How the model reaches 58% for JS El Biar to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for JS El Biar to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, JS El Biar's ratings take away 25 points and ASO Chlef's ratings add 39 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- JS El Biar's ratings19%−25
- ASO Chlef's ratings58%+39
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
JS El Biar at home · ASO Chlef away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: JS El Biar 7, ASO Chlef 6.
JS El Biar score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); ASO Chlef have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
JS El Biar
- vs MC Alger8 Nov · Ligue 1win 37%
- at ES Setif21 Nov · Ligue 1win 29%
- vs US Biskra28 Nov · Ligue 1win 69%
ASO Chlef
- at US Biskra8 Nov · Ligue 1win 37%
- vs Olympique Akbou21 Nov · Ligue 1win 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.