ES Setif
vs
Témouchent
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: ES Setif 1–0 Témouchent
The model makes it 56% ES Setif, 26% draw, 18% Témouchent — fair odds of 1.79, 3.85 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: ES Setif 1.74, Témouchent 0.75.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to ES Setif: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- ES Setif are 9th on 5 points from 5 games; Témouchent are 13th on 4 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- ES Setif are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to JS Kabylie.
- Témouchent have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to MB Rouisset.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ES Setif vs Témouchent
Has the model earned this number?
It puts ES Setif at 56% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into ES Setif vs Témouchent
ES Setif
- D1-1JS Kabylie14 October 2026
- D0-0away to MC Oran8 October 2026
- W5-1CS Constantine19 September 2026
- L0-1away to CR Belouizdad11 September 2026
- L0-1Ben Aknoun3 September 2026
Témouchent
- L0-2MB Rouisset14 October 2026
- L0-1away to MC Alger9 October 2026
- W1-0JS Kabylie17 September 2026
- L0-2away to MC Oran11 September 2026
- D1-1CS Constantine5 September 2026
What these results say
- ES Setif failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Setif conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for ES Setif had two goals or fewer.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Témouchent had two goals or fewer.
- Témouchent failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Témouchent conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | ES Setif | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 | Témouchent | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
ES Setif carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.09 for Témouchent. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for ES Setif and 0.75 for Témouchent. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
ES Setif rate 0.58 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Témouchent rate 0.39 and 1.84.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ES Setif the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for ES Setif against 0.75 for Témouchent. ES Setif's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.84 for Témouchent.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
ES Setif at home · Témouchent away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: ES Setif 5, Témouchent 4.
ES Setif score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Témouchent have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
ES Setif
- vs US Biskra31 Oct · Ligue 1win 60%
- at Khenchela7 Nov · Ligue 1win 31%
Témouchent
- vs JS El Biar31 Oct · Ligue 1win 35%
- at Olympique Akbou7 Nov · Ligue 1win 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.