Regular Season - 7 · 24 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

JS Saoura vs Ben Aknoun Ligue 1 prediction

Our model says: JS Saoura 2–1 Ben Aknoun

The model makes it 45% JS Saoura, 27% draw, 28% Ben Aknoun — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: JS Saoura 1.63, Ben Aknoun 1.16.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • JS Saoura are 15th on 2 points from 4 games; Ben Aknoun are 8th on 6 points from 4 games — Ligue 1.
  • JS Saoura have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to USM Alger.
  • Ben Aknoun are unbeaten in their last 4 games (1 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to JS El Biar.
  • Last 4 meetings: JS Saoura 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 February 2026, ended JS Saoura 1–0 Ben Aknoun.

More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: JS Saoura vs Ben Aknoun

56%
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

JS Saoura win Draw Ben Aknoun win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 0–17%

Scores read JS Saoura first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 42%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts JS Saoura at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into JS Saoura vs Ben Aknoun

JS Saoura

  • L0-1away to USM Alger13 October 2026
  • D0-0Olympique Akbou8 October 2026
  • D0-0away to US Biskra22 September 2026
  • L0-4away to JS El Biar18 September 2026

Ben Aknoun

  • D2-2JS El Biar7 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Khenchela18 September 2026
  • D2-2US Biskra10 September 2026
  • W1-0away to ES Setif3 September 2026

What these results say

  • JS Saoura did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • JS Saoura failed to score in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for JS Saoura had two goals or fewer.
  • Ben Aknoun went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Ben Aknoun scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Ben Aknoun failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15JS Saoura402205-52
8Ben Aknoun413065+16

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: JS Saoura vs Ben Aknoun

  • 27 February 2026JS Saoura 1–0 Ben AknounLigue 1
  • 27 September 2025Ben Aknoun 1–1 JS SaouraLigue 1
  • 23 February 2024Ben Aknoun 2–0 JS SaouraLigue 1
  • 30 September 2023JS Saoura 1–0 Ben AknounLigue 1

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

JS Saoura carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.29 for Ben Aknoun. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for JS Saoura and 1.16 for Ben Aknoun. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

JS Saoura rate 0.49 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ben Aknoun rate 0.66 and 2.05.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ben Aknoun, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives JS Saoura the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for JS Saoura against 1.16 for Ben Aknoun. JS Saoura's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/2.05 for Ben Aknoun.

Season stats

JS SaouraBen Aknoun
4Matches4
0W 2D 2LRecord1W 3D 0L
0 0.0 per gameGoals scored6 1.5 per game
5 1.3 per gameGoals conceded5 1.3 per game
2 of 4Clean sheets1 of 4
4 of 4Failed to score0 of 4
–Penalties scored1 of 1
11 2.8 per gameYellow cards6 1.5 per game
1Red cards0

JS Saoura at home · Ben Aknoun away

1Played2
0W 1D 0LRecord1W 1D 0L
0–0Goals for – against2–1
1 of 1Clean sheets1 of 2

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: JS Saoura 4, Ben Aknoun 4.

JS Saoura scored 000000
Ben Aknoun conceded 011030
Ben Aknoun scored 110103
JS Saoura conceded 001103

Ben Aknoun score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); JS Saoura have let in 3 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

Next match, by difficulty

JS Saoura

  • at MC Oran31 Oct · Ligue 1win 25%

Ben Aknoun

  • at CS Constantine31 Oct · Ligue 1win 29%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.