JS Saoura
vs
JS Kabylie
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: JS Saoura 1–0 JS Kabylie
The model makes it 38% JS Saoura, 30% draw, 32% JS Kabylie — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: JS Saoura 1.22, JS Kabylie 1.09.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 961 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. JS Saoura's rating is built from 35 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and JS Kabylie's from 35, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- JS Saoura are 15th on 2 points from 5 games; JS Kabylie are 4th on 10 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- JS Saoura have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to MB Rouisset.
- JS Kabylie are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to US Biskra.
- Last 6 meetings: JS Saoura 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 18 March 2026, ended JS Kabylie 0–1 JS Saoura.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: JS Saoura vs JS Kabylie
Has the model earned this number?
It puts JS Saoura at 38% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into JS Saoura vs JS Kabylie
JS Saoura
Ligue 1
- L0-1away to MB Rouisset18 October 2026
- L0-1away to USM Alger13 October 2026
- D0-0Olympique Akbou8 October 2026
- D0-0away to US Biskra22 September 2026
- L0-4away to JS El Biar18 September 2026
JS Kabylie
Ligue 1
- W4-1US Biskra18 October 2026
- D1-1away to ES Setif14 October 2026
- W1-0ASO Chlef9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Témouchent17 September 2026
- W1-0MB Rouisset4 September 2026
What these results say
- JS Saoura did not win any of these 5 matches.
- JS Saoura failed to score in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for JS Saoura had two goals or fewer.
- JS Kabylie scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for JS Kabylie had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | JS Saoura | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 2 |
| 4 | JS Kabylie | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: JS Saoura vs JS Kabylie
- 18 March 2026JS Kabylie 0–1 JS SaouraLigue 1
- 29 October 2025JS Saoura 2–2 JS KabylieLigue 1
- 17 May 2025JS Kabylie 1–2 JS SaouraLigue 1
- 2 December 2024JS Saoura 1–1 JS KabylieLigue 1
- 11 June 2024JS Kabylie 1–1 JS SaouraLigue 1
- 19 January 2024JS Saoura 3–2 JS KabylieLigue 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
JS Saoura carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.39 for JS Kabylie. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for JS Saoura and 1.09 for JS Kabylie. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
JS Saoura rate 0.47 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; JS Kabylie rate 0.63 and 1.59.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour JS Kabylie, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives JS Saoura a 0.2% chance of the title and JS Kabylie 9.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives JS Saoura the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for JS Saoura against 1.09 for JS Kabylie. JS Saoura's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.59 for JS Kabylie.
How the model reaches 38% for JS Saoura to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for JS Saoura to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, JS Saoura's ratings take away 26 points and JS Kabylie's ratings add 20 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- JS Saoura's ratings18%−26
- JS Kabylie's ratings38%+20
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
JS Saoura at home · JS Kabylie away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: JS Saoura 5, JS Kabylie 5.
JS Kabylie score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); JS Saoura have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
JS Saoura
- vs CS Constantine8 Nov · Ligue 1win 50%
- vs Khenchela13 Nov · Ligue 1win 42%
JS Kabylie
No further matches on our board yet.
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.