Khenchela
vs
ES Setif
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Khenchela 1–0 ES Setif
The model makes it 40% Khenchela, 29% draw, 31% ES Setif — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Khenchela 1.33, ES Setif 1.11.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,131 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Khenchela's rating is built from 35 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and ES Setif's from 35, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Khenchela are 12th on 5 points from 5 games; ES Setif are 11th on 5 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- Khenchela have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to MC Oran.
- ES Setif are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to JS Kabylie.
- Last 6 meetings: ES Setif 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 January 2026, ended ES Setif 4–1 Khenchela.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Khenchela vs ES Setif
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Khenchela at 40% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Khenchela vs ES Setif
Khenchela
Ligue 1
- L0-1away to MC Oran17 October 2026
- W2-0CS Constantine12 October 2026
- L0-1away to CR Belouizdad7 October 2026
- D1-1Ben Aknoun18 September 2026
- D0-0USM Alger4 September 2026
ES Setif
Ligue 1
- D1-1JS Kabylie14 October 2026
- D0-0away to MC Oran8 October 2026
- W5-1CS Constantine19 September 2026
- L0-1away to CR Belouizdad11 September 2026
- L0-1Ben Aknoun3 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Khenchela had two goals or fewer.
- Khenchela failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Setif failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Setif conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for ES Setif had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Khenchela | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | ES Setif | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Khenchela vs ES Setif
- 23 January 2026ES Setif 4–1 KhenchelaLigue 1
- 23 August 2025Khenchela 1–1 ES SetifLigue 1
- 25 May 2025ES Setif 0–1 KhenchelaLigue 1
- 7 December 2024Khenchela 2–3 ES SetifLigue 1
- 9 February 2024ES Setif 2–1 KhenchelaLigue 1
- 15 September 2023Khenchela 1–0 ES SetifLigue 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Khenchela carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.33 for ES Setif. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Khenchela and 1.11 for ES Setif. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Khenchela rate 0.51 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; ES Setif rate 0.57 and 1.60.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour ES Setif, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Khenchela a 0.5% chance of the title and ES Setif 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Khenchela the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Khenchela against 1.11 for ES Setif. Khenchela's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.6 for ES Setif.
How the model reaches 40% for Khenchela to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Khenchela to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Khenchela's ratings take away 27 points and ES Setif's ratings add 23 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Khenchela's ratings17%−27
- ES Setif's ratings40%+23
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Khenchela at home · ES Setif away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Khenchela 5, ES Setif 5.
ES Setif score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Khenchela have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Khenchela
- vs Témouchent8 Nov · Ligue 1win 52%
- at JS Saoura13 Nov · Ligue 1win 27%
ES Setif
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.