União de Leiria
vs
Sporting CP B
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: União de Leiria 2–1 Sporting CP B
The model makes it 40% União de Leiria, 27% draw, 33% Sporting CP B — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: União de Leiria 1.57, Sporting CP B 1.41.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,556 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 1 November 2026. União de Leiria's rating is built from 43 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Sporting CP B's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- União de Leiria are 7th on 14 points from 9 games; Sporting CP B are top on 21 points from 9 games — Segunda Liga.
- União de Leiria have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to AVS.
- Sporting CP B are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Leixoes.
- Last 6 meetings: União de Leiria 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 January 2026, ended União de Leiria 3–1 Sporting CP B.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: União de Leiria vs Sporting CP B
Has the model earned this number?
União de Leiria at 40%: of 2,529 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.4% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into União de Leiria vs Sporting CP B
União de Leiria
Segunda Liga
- W2-1AVS31 October 2026
- D1-1away to FC Porto B25 October 2026
- L0-2Academica11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Amarante13 September 2026
- W1-0Portimonense6 September 2026
Sporting CP B
Segunda Liga
- W2-1away to Leixoes31 October 2026
- W3-0Portimonense24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Vizela10 October 2026
- L1-2Lusitânia Lourosa14 September 2026
- W3-1away to Feirense5 September 2026
What these results say
- União de Leiria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- União de Leiria conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting CP B scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sporting CP B won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sporting CP B had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | União de Leiria | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 14 |
| 1 | Sporting CP B | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: União de Leiria vs Sporting CP B
- 26 January 2026União de Leiria 3–1 Sporting CP BSegunda Liga
- 17 August 2025Sporting CP B 1–0 União de LeiriaSegunda Liga
- 18 February 2023Sporting CP B 0–1 União de LeiriaLiga 3
- 6 November 2022União de Leiria 1–0 Sporting CP BLiga 3
- 11 February 2022União de Leiria 3–1 Sporting CP BLiga 3
- 7 November 2021Sporting CP B 0–2 União de LeiriaLiga 3
Leading scorers: União de Leiria and Sporting CP B
União de Leiria
No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Sporting CP B
GoalsAssists
- Mauro Couto10
- Paulo Cardoso10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
União de Leiria carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.54 for Sporting CP B.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for União de Leiria and 1.41 for Sporting CP B.
União de Leiria rate 0.75 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting CP B rate 0.69 and 1.29.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sporting CP B, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives União de Leiria a 1.9% chance of the title and Sporting CP B 22.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives União de Leiria the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for União de Leiria against 1.41 for Sporting CP B. União de Leiria's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.29 for Sporting CP B.
How the model reaches 40% for União de Leiria to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for União de Leiria to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, União de Leiria's ratings take away 2 points and Sporting CP B's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- União de Leiria's ratings43%−2
- Sporting CP B's ratings40%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
União de Leiria at home · Sporting CP B away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: União de Leiria 9, Sporting CP B 9.
Sporting CP B score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); União de Leiria have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
União de Leiria
- at Farense28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 29%
- vs Chaves6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 57%
- at Feirense13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 39%
- vs Felgueiras 193220 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 48%
Sporting CP B
- vs Amarante30 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 57%
- at Torreense6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 32%
- vs Academica13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 46%
- at FC Porto B20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 35%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.