Penafiel
vs
Lusitânia Lourosa
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Penafiel 2–1 Lusitânia Lourosa
The model makes it 53% Penafiel, 23% draw, 24% Lusitânia Lourosa — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Penafiel 2.25, Lusitânia Lourosa 1.34.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,829 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 1 November 2026. Penafiel's rating is built from 42 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Lusitânia Lourosa's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Penafiel are 4th on 16 points from 8 games; Lusitânia Lourosa are 2nd on 18 points from 8 games — Segunda Liga.
- Penafiel have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Farense.
- Lusitânia Lourosa are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Felgueiras 1932.
- Last 2 meetings: Penafiel 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 February 2026, ended Penafiel 2–0 Lusitânia Lourosa.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa
Has the model earned this number?
Penafiel at 53%: of 1,376 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.5% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa
Penafiel
Segunda Liga
- W4-1away to Farense24 October 2026
- L1-2AVS9 October 2026
- W2-1away to Felgueiras 193212 September 2026
- W4-1Academica5 September 2026
- W3-0away to FC Porto B30 August 2026
Lusitânia Lourosa
Segunda Liga
- D2-2away to Felgueiras 193225 October 2026
- D1-1Chaves11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sporting CP B14 September 2026
- W2-1AVS7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Academica29 August 2026
What these results say
- Penafiel scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Penafiel had three goals or more.
- Penafiel won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lusitânia Lourosa went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lusitânia Lourosa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lusitânia Lourosa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penafiel | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa
- 16 February 2026Penafiel 2–0 Lusitânia LourosaSegunda Liga
- 13 September 2025Lusitânia Lourosa 0–0 PenafielSegunda Liga
Leading scorers: Penafiel and Lusitânia Lourosa
Penafiel
No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Lusitânia Lourosa
GoalsAssists
- Mika Borges10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Penafiel carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.47 for Lusitânia Lourosa.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.25 goals for Penafiel and 1.34 for Lusitânia Lourosa.
Penafiel rate 0.86 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lusitânia Lourosa rate 0.74 and 1.61.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lusitânia Lourosa, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Penafiel a 30.3% chance of the title and Lusitânia Lourosa 9.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Penafiel the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Penafiel against 1.34 for Lusitânia Lourosa. Penafiel's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.61 for Lusitânia Lourosa.
How the model reaches 53% for Penafiel to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Penafiel to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 3 points, Penafiel's ratings add 3 points and Lusitânia Lourosa's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level47%+3
- Penafiel's ratings50%+3
- Lusitânia Lourosa's ratings53%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Penafiel at home · Lusitânia Lourosa away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Penafiel 8, Lusitânia Lourosa 8.
Penafiel score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Lusitânia Lourosa have let in 0 there.
Lusitânia Lourosa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Penafiel have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Penafiel
- vs Benfica B29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 44%
- at Tondela6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 36%
- vs Leixoes13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 62%
Lusitânia Lourosa
- vs Vizela28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 51%
- at Benfica B6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 23%
- vs Tondela13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 46%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.