Lusitânia Lourosa
vs
Farense
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Lusitânia Lourosa 1–0 Farense
The model makes it 40% Lusitânia Lourosa, 28% draw, 32% Farense — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lusitânia Lourosa 1.49, Farense 1.25.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Lusitânia Lourosa are top on 17 points from 7 games; Farense are 3rd on 14 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- Lusitânia Lourosa are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Chaves.
- Farense are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Feirense.
- Last 2 meetings: Farense 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 1 March 2026, ended Farense 2–1 Lusitânia Lourosa.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lusitânia Lourosa at 40% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense
Lusitânia Lourosa
- D1-1Chaves11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sporting CP B14 September 2026
- W2-1AVS7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Academica29 August 2026
- D2-2Torreense22 August 2026
Farense
- W2-1Feirense11 October 2026
- W4-0Chaves4 October 2026
- D0-0away to AVS13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sporting CP B30 August 2026
- D1-1Felgueiras 193224 August 2026
What these results say
- Lusitânia Lourosa went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lusitânia Lourosa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lusitânia Lourosa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Farense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 17 |
| 3 | Farense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense
- 1 March 2026Farense 2–1 Lusitânia LourosaSegunda Liga
- 4 October 2025Lusitânia Lourosa 1–2 FarenseSegunda Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lusitânia Lourosa carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.53 for Farense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Lusitânia Lourosa and 1.25 for Farense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lusitânia Lourosa rate 0.72 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Farense rate 0.67 and 1.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lusitânia Lourosa a 11.5% chance of the title and Farense 11.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lusitânia Lourosa the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Lusitânia Lourosa against 1.25 for Farense. Lusitânia Lourosa's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.27 for Farense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lusitânia Lourosa at home · Farense away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Lusitânia Lourosa 7, Farense 7.
Lusitânia Lourosa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Farense have let in 2 there.
Farense score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Lusitânia Lourosa have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lusitânia Lourosa
- at Feirense8 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 41%
- at Penafiel15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 27%
- vs Vizela28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 49%
- at Benfica B6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 24%
Farense
- vs Benfica B8 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 41%
- at Tondela15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 26%
- vs União de Leiria28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 51%
- at Vizela6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.