FC Porto B
vs
Torreense
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: FC Porto B 1–0 Torreense
The model makes it 41% FC Porto B, 28% draw, 31% Torreense — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Porto B 1.51, Torreense 1.23.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,556 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 1 November 2026. FC Porto B's rating is built from 43 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Torreense's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FC Porto B are 16th on 8 points from 9 games; Torreense are 12th on 10 points from 9 games — Segunda Liga.
- FC Porto B have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Amarante.
- Torreense have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Portimonense.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Porto B 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Torreense 0–3 FC Porto B.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Porto B vs Torreense
Has the model earned this number?
FC Porto B at 41%: of 2,529 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.4% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Porto B vs Torreense
FC Porto B
Segunda Liga
- L1-2away to Amarante31 October 2026
- D1-1União de Leiria25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Leixoes10 October 2026
- D2-2Vizela14 September 2026
- L0-3away to Tondela5 September 2026
Torreense
Segunda Liga
- D0-0away to Portimonense31 October 2026
- W1-0Amarante26 October 2026
- L0-1away to Tondela10 October 2026
- D0-0Leixoes11 September 2026
- W2-0away to Benfica B5 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Porto B conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Porto B failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Porto B scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Torreense had two goals or fewer.
- Torreense kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | FC Porto B | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Torreense | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Porto B vs Torreense
- 28 February 2026Torreense 0–3 FC Porto BSegunda Liga
- 5 October 2025FC Porto B 2–3 TorreenseSegunda Liga
- 30 March 2025Torreense 2–4 FC Porto BSegunda Liga
- 3 November 2024FC Porto B 1–1 TorreenseSegunda Liga
- 3 March 2024Torreense 0–1 FC Porto BSegunda Liga
- 8 October 2023FC Porto B 2–2 TorreenseSegunda Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Porto B carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.47 for Torreense.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for FC Porto B and 1.23 for Torreense.
FC Porto B rate 0.71 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Torreense rate 0.60 and 1.31.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Torreense, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Porto B a 0.2% chance of the title and Torreense 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Porto B the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for FC Porto B against 1.23 for Torreense. FC Porto B's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.31 for Torreense.
How the model reaches 41% for FC Porto B to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Porto B to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, FC Porto B's ratings change nothing and Torreense's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- FC Porto B's ratings44%±0
- Torreense's ratings41%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Porto B at home · Torreense away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: FC Porto B 9, Torreense 9.
FC Porto B score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Torreense have let in 2 there.
Torreense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); FC Porto B have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Porto B
- at Felgueiras 193229 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 31%
- vs Academica6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 40%
- at Chaves13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 37%
- vs Sporting CP B20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 38%
Torreense
- vs Celtic26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 25%
- at Academica30 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 26%
- vs Sporting CP B6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.