Portimonense
vs
Academica
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Portimonense 1–2 Academica
The model makes it 32% Portimonense, 27% draw, 41% Academica — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Portimonense 1.29, Academica 1.51.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,556 settled matches.
Edge to Academica: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 1 November 2026. Portimonense's rating is built from 43 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Academica's from 8, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Portimonense are 10th on 11 points from 9 games; Academica are 5th on 15 points from 8 games — Segunda Liga.
- Portimonense have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Torreense.
- Academica have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Leixoes.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 July 2021, ended Portimonense 2–1 Academica.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Portimonense vs Academica
Has the model earned this number?
Academica at 41%: of 2,529 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.4% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Portimonense vs Academica
Portimonense
Segunda Liga
- D0-0Torreense31 October 2026
- L0-3away to Sporting CP B24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Amarante10 October 2026
- L0-2Tondela12 September 2026
- L0-1away to União de Leiria6 September 2026
Academica
Segunda Liga
- W4-0Leixoes24 October 2026
- W2-0away to União de Leiria11 October 2026
- L0-3Benfica B11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Penafiel5 September 2026
- L0-2Lusitânia Lourosa29 August 2026
What these results say
- Portimonense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Portimonense failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Portimonense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Portimonense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 5 | Academica | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Portimonense vs Academica
- 23 July 2021Portimonense 2–1 AcademicaTaça da Liga
- 19 October 2019Academica 2–1 PortimonenseTaça de Portugal
- 3 August 2019Portimonense 2–0 AcademicaTaça da Liga
- 4 February 2017Portimonense 0–0 AcademicaSegunda Liga
- 24 August 2016Academica 0–0 PortimonenseSegunda Liga
- 2 April 2011Academica 1–0 PortimonensePrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Portimonense and Academica
Portimonense
GoalsAssists
- Danio Djassi11
- Welinton Júnior10
Academica
GoalsAssists
- K. Zohi10
- Leandro Silva10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The two sides
Portimonense carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.53 for Academica.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Portimonense and 1.51 for Academica.
Portimonense rate 0.52 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Academica rate 0.79 and 1.52.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Portimonense a 0.1% chance of the title and Academica 11.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Academica the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Portimonense against 1.51 for Academica. Portimonense's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.52 for Academica.
How the model reaches 41% for Academica to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Academica to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Portimonense's ratings add 5 points and Academica's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Portimonense's ratings34%+5
- Academica's ratings41%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Portimonense at home · Academica away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Portimonense 9, Academica 8.
Portimonense score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Academica have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Portimonense
- at Feirense27 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 31%
- vs Felgueiras 19326 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 38%
- at AVS13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 22%
- vs Lusitânia Lourosa20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 35%
Academica
- vs Torreense30 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 47%
- at FC Porto B6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 35%
- at Sporting CP B13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 28%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.