Penafiel
vs
Feirense
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Penafiel 2–0 Feirense
The model makes it 61% Penafiel, 23% draw, 16% Feirense — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Penafiel 2.13, Feirense 0.87.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 58% of the time, over 1,389 settled matches.
One-sided: Penafiel are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Penafiel's rating is built from 41 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Feirense's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Penafiel are 4th on 13 points from 7 games; Feirense are bottom on 1 point from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- Penafiel have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to AVS.
- Feirense have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Farense.
- Last 6 meetings: Feirense 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Feirense 1–0 Penafiel.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Penafiel vs Feirense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Penafiel at 61% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,048 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Penafiel vs Feirense
Penafiel
- L1-2AVS9 October 2026
- W2-1away to Felgueiras 193212 September 2026
- W4-1Academica5 September 2026
- W3-0away to FC Porto B30 August 2026
- W2-0Sporting CP B23 August 2026
Feirense
- L1-2away to Farense11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Chaves13 September 2026
- L1-3Sporting CP B5 September 2026
- L0-2away to AVS30 August 2026
- L0-1FC Porto B24 August 2026
What these results say
- Penafiel scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Penafiel won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Penafiel had three goals or more.
- Feirense did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Feirense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 13 |
| 18 | Feirense | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Penafiel vs Feirense
- 15 March 2026Feirense 1–0 PenafielSegunda Liga
- 19 October 2025Penafiel 1–2 FeirenseSegunda Liga
- 19 April 2025Penafiel 1–2 FeirenseSegunda Liga
- 7 December 2024Feirense 3–0 PenafielSegunda Liga
- 29 January 2024Penafiel 2–1 FeirenseSegunda Liga
- 20 August 2023Feirense 2–0 PenafielSegunda Liga
The two sides
Penafiel carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.23 for Feirense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.13 goals for Penafiel and 0.87 for Feirense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Penafiel rate 0.79 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Feirense rate 0.47 and 1.66.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Penafiel a 12.8% chance of the title and Feirense 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Penafiel the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Penafiel against 0.87 for Feirense. Penafiel's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.66 for Feirense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Penafiel at home · Feirense away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Penafiel 7, Feirense 7.
Penafiel score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Feirense have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Penafiel
- at Chaves7 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 43%
- vs Lusitânia Lourosa15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 49%
- vs Benfica B29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 43%
- at Tondela6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 26%
Feirense
- vs Lusitânia Lourosa8 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 31%
- at Vizela15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 22%
- vs Portimonense27 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 36%
- at Leixoes6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.