Regular Season - 9 · 1 November 2026, 11:00 UTC

Vizela vs Academica Segunda Liga prediction

Caldas de Vizela

Our model says: Vizela 2–1 Academica

The model makes it 43% Vizela, 27% draw, 30% Academica — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Vizela 1.57, Academica 1.23.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Key facts

  • Vizela are 8th on 11 points from 7 games; Academica are 6th on 12 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
  • Vizela have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Sporting CP B.
  • Academica have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to União de Leiria.
  • Last 4 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 March 2021, ended Academica 1–3 Vizela.

More Liga Portugal 2 predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Vizela vs Academica

57%
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Vizela win Draw Academica win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 2–07%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 0–07%

Scores read Vizela first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 42%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Vizela at 43% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Vizela vs Academica

Vizela

  • L0-2Sporting CP B10 October 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Porto B14 September 2026
  • W1-0Felgueiras 19326 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Torreense29 August 2026
  • D0-0Amarante22 August 2026

Academica

  • W2-0away to União de Leiria11 October 2026
  • L0-3Benfica B11 September 2026
  • L1-4away to Penafiel5 September 2026
  • L0-2Lusitânia Lourosa29 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Tondela21 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Vizela732276+111
6Academica74031010012

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Vizela vs Academica

  • 13 March 2021Academica 1–3 VizelaSegunda Liga
  • 24 October 2020Vizela 1–3 AcademicaSegunda Liga
  • 5 March 2017Vizela 0–1 AcademicaSegunda Liga
  • 4 September 2016Academica 0–1 VizelaSegunda Liga

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Vizela carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.41 for Academica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Vizela and 1.23 for Academica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Vizela rate 0.57 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Academica rate 0.69 and 1.69.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Academica, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vizela a 0.7% chance of the title and Academica 2.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Vizela the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Vizela against 1.23 for Academica. Vizela's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.69 for Academica.

Season stats

VizelaAcademica
7Matches7
3W 2D 2LRecord4W 0D 3L
7 1.0 per gameGoals scored10 1.4 per game
6 0.9 per gameGoals conceded10 1.4 per game
4 of 7Clean sheets3 of 7
3 of 7Failed to score2 of 7
–Penalties scored2 of 2
24 3.4 per gameYellow cards19 2.7 per game
1Red cards1
4-2-3-1 6×Usual shape4-3-3 5×

Vizela at home · Academica away

4Played4
2W 1D 1LRecord3W 0D 1L
2–2Goals for – against9–5
3 of 4Clean sheets2 of 4

League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Segunda Liga matches this season: Vizela 7, Academica 7.

Vizela scored 023200
Academica conceded 032122

Vizela score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Academica have let in 2 there.

Academica scored 113113
Vizela conceded 022110

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Vizela

  • at AVS6 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 20%
  • vs Feirense15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 50%
  • at Lusitânia Lourosa28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 25%
  • vs Farense6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 35%

Academica

  • vs Amarante7 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 52%
  • at Portimonense15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 31%
  • vs Torreense30 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 35%
  • at FC Porto B6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 28%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.