Athletic Club MG
vs
Ceara
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Athletic Club MG 1–2 Ceara
The model makes it 31% Athletic Club MG, 27% draw, 42% Ceara — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Athletic Club MG 1.23, Ceara 1.53.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 1,986 settled matches.
Edge to Ceara: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Athletic Club MG's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie B matches and Ceara's from 38 Brazilian Serie A matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Athletic Club MG are 14th on 44 points from 34 games; Ceara are 15th on 43 points from 34 games — Serie B.
- Athletic Club MG have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Avai.
- Ceara have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Juventude.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Athletic Club MG vs Ceara
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ceara at 42% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,987 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Athletic Club MG vs Ceara
Athletic Club MG
- D0-0away to Avai18 October 2026
- D2-2Londrina13 October 2026
- L1-2away to Goias6 October 2026
- L1-2Sport Recife1 October 2026
- D2-2away to Fortaleza EC27 September 2026
Ceara
- D2-2Juventude17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Botafogo SP13 October 2026
- W1-0Criciuma8 October 2026
- W1-0away to Avai3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Operario-PR26 September 2026
What these results say
- Athletic Club MG did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Athletic Club MG scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Athletic Club MG conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ceara scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Athletic Club MG | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 40 | 39 | +1 | 44 |
| 15 | Ceara | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Athletic Club MG vs Ceara
- 13 July 2026Ceara 0–0 Athletic Club MGSerie B
Leading scorers: Athletic Club MG and Ceara
Athletic Club MG
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
Ceara
GoalsAssists
- Melk75
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Athletic Club MG carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.59 for Ceara. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Athletic Club MG and 1.53 for Ceara. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Athletic Club MG rate 0.62 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ceara rate 0.73 and 1.22.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Athletic Club MG, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ceara the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Athletic Club MG against 1.53 for Ceara. Athletic Club MG's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.22 for Ceara.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Athletic Club MG at home · Ceara away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Athletic Club MG 34, Ceara 34.
Athletic Club MG score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Ceara have let in 7 there.
Ceara score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Athletic Club MG have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Athletic Club MG
- vs Atletico Goianiense8 Nov · Serie Bwin 38%
- at São Bernardo14 Nov · Serie Bwin 25%
Ceara
- vs America Mineiro8 Nov · Serie Bwin 70%
- at CRB14 Nov · Serie Bwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.