Spaeri
vs
Gagra
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Spaeri 1–0 Gagra
The model makes it 43% Spaeri, 28% draw, 29% Gagra — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Spaeri 1.50, Gagra 1.14.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Spaeri are 9th on 26 points from 28 games; Gagra are 8th on 29 points from 28 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Spaeri have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Torpedo Kutaisi.
- Gagra have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Samgurali.
- Last 6 meetings: Spaeri 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 August 2026, ended Gagra 1–1 Spaeri.
More Erovnuli Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Spaeri vs Gagra
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spaeri at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Spaeri vs Gagra
Spaeri
- D3-3Torpedo Kutaisi10 October 2026
- L1-4Dila21 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Iberia 199913 September 2026
- D1-1Rustavi9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Meshakhte5 September 2026
Gagra
- L0-3away to Samgurali11 October 2026
- D1-1Meshakhte19 September 2026
- L0-4away to Dinamo Tbilisi14 September 2026
- D1-1Torpedo Kutaisi10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dila5 September 2026
What these results say
- Spaeri did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Spaeri conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Spaeri scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gagra did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Gagra conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Spaeri | 28 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 37 | 46 | -9 | 26 |
| 8 | Gagra | 28 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 25 | 40 | -15 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Spaeri
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 94% today
Gagra
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 91% today
From our Erovnuli Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Spaeri vs Gagra
- 17 August 2026Gagra 1–1 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
- 11 May 2026Spaeri 3–0 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 11 March 2026Gagra 0–3 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
- 5 November 2024Spaeri 2–2 GagraDavid Kipiani Cup
- 12 December 2022Spaeri 3–1 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 8 December 2022Gagra 2–0 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Spaeri carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6 for Gagra. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Spaeri and 1.14 for Gagra. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Spaeri rate 0.49 in attack and 2.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gagra rate 0.37 and 2.05.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gagra, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spaeri the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Spaeri against 1.14 for Gagra. Spaeri's attack/defence rating is 0.49/2.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.37/2.05 for Gagra.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Spaeri at home · Gagra away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Spaeri 28, Gagra 28.
Spaeri score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Gagra have let in 10 there.
Gagra score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Spaeri have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Spaeri
- at Samgurali31 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 31%
- vs Dinamo Batumi8 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 29%
- vs FC Iberia 199915 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 28%
- vs Meshakhte21 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 46%
Gagra
- vs Rustavi1 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 24%
- at FC Iberia 19999 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 19%
- vs Dila20 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 25%
- vs Dinamo Tbilisi24 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.