Dinamo Tbilisi
vs
FC Iberia 1999
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Tbilisi 1–0 FC Iberia 1999
The model makes it 41% Dinamo Tbilisi, 29% draw, 30% FC Iberia 1999 — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Dinamo Tbilisi 1.40, FC Iberia 1999 1.11.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Dinamo Tbilisi are 4th on 48 points from 28 games; FC Iberia 1999 are 3rd on 49 points from 28 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Dinamo Tbilisi have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Dinamo Batumi.
- FC Iberia 1999 have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Meshakhte.
- Last 6 meetings: Dinamo Tbilisi 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 October 2026, ended FC Iberia 1999 1–2 Dinamo Tbilisi.
More Erovnuli Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dinamo Tbilisi vs FC Iberia 1999
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Tbilisi at 41% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dinamo Tbilisi vs FC Iberia 1999
Dinamo Tbilisi
- L0-1away to Dinamo Batumi11 October 2026
- W2-1away to FC Iberia 19994 October 2026
- W3-2away to Samgurali19 September 2026
- W4-0Gagra14 September 2026
- D0-0Meshakhte10 September 2026
FC Iberia 1999
- W2-1away to Meshakhte10 October 2026
- L1-2Dinamo Tbilisi4 October 2026
- W2-0away to Rustavi21 September 2026
- W2-1Dila17 September 2026
- W1-0Spaeri13 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Iberia 1999 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Iberia 1999 won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 45 | 31 | +14 | 48 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 49 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dinamo Tbilisi
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 21% today
FC Iberia 1999
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 15% today
From our Erovnuli Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Dinamo Tbilisi vs FC Iberia 1999
- 4 October 2026FC Iberia 1999 1–2 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
- 27 June 2026FC Iberia 1999 1–0 Dinamo TbilisiSuper Cup
- 16 May 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 2–0 FC Iberia 1999Erovnuli Liga
- 15 March 2026FC Iberia 1999 0–0 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
- 26 November 2025FC Iberia 1999 1–0 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
- 19 September 2025Dinamo Tbilisi 2–1 FC Iberia 1999Erovnuli Liga
Leading scorers: Dinamo Tbilisi and FC Iberia 1999
Dinamo Tbilisi
GoalsAssists
- Rodrigo Silva Ramos22
FC Iberia 1999
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dinamo Tbilisi carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.31 for FC Iberia 1999. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Dinamo Tbilisi and 1.11 for FC Iberia 1999. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Tbilisi rate 0.58 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Iberia 1999 rate 0.54 and 1.61.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Iberia 1999, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dinamo Tbilisi a 20.7% chance of the title and FC Iberia 1999 14.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Tbilisi the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Dinamo Tbilisi against 1.11 for FC Iberia 1999. Dinamo Tbilisi's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.61 for FC Iberia 1999.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dinamo Tbilisi at home · FC Iberia 1999 away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Dinamo Tbilisi 28, FC Iberia 1999 28.
Dinamo Tbilisi score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); FC Iberia 1999 have let in 4 there.
FC Iberia 1999 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Dinamo Tbilisi have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Dinamo Tbilisi
- at Dila8 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 34%
- vs Torpedo Kutaisi20 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 45%
- at Gagra24 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 50%
FC Iberia 1999
- at FC Copenhagen5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 9%
- vs Gagra9 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.