Rustavi
vs
Dinamo Tbilisi
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Rustavi 1–0 Dinamo Tbilisi
The model makes it 37% Rustavi, 31% draw, 32% Dinamo Tbilisi — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Rustavi 1.12, Dinamo Tbilisi 1.01.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Rustavi are 2nd on 49 points from 28 games; Dinamo Tbilisi are 4th on 48 points from 28 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Rustavi have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Dila.
- Dinamo Tbilisi have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Dinamo Batumi.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Dinamo Tbilisi 0–3 Rustavi.
More Erovnuli Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rustavi vs Dinamo Tbilisi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rustavi at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rustavi vs Dinamo Tbilisi
Rustavi
- W3-1Dila10 October 2026
- L0-2FC Iberia 199921 September 2026
- W1-0away to Meshakhte14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spaeri9 September 2026
- L0-1Dinamo Batumi4 September 2026
Dinamo Tbilisi
- L0-1away to Dinamo Batumi11 October 2026
- W2-1away to FC Iberia 19994 October 2026
- W3-2away to Samgurali19 September 2026
- W4-0Gagra14 September 2026
- D0-0Meshakhte10 September 2026
What these results say
- Rustavi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rustavi had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rustavi | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 24 | +11 | 49 |
| 4 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 45 | 31 | +14 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rustavi
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 23% today
Dinamo Tbilisi
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 25% today
From our Erovnuli Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Rustavi vs Dinamo Tbilisi
- 15 August 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 0–3 RustaviErovnuli Liga
- 11 May 2026Rustavi 2–3 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
- 11 March 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 0–0 RustaviErovnuli Liga
- 23 January 2026Rustavi 2–1 Dinamo TbilisiFriendlies Clubs
- 9 November 2019Rustavi 0–2 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
- 25 August 2019Dinamo Tbilisi 2–2 RustaviErovnuli Liga
Leading scorers: Rustavi and Dinamo Tbilisi
Rustavi
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.
Dinamo Tbilisi
GoalsAssists
- Rodrigo Silva Ramos22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rustavi carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.34 for Dinamo Tbilisi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Rustavi and 1.01 for Dinamo Tbilisi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rustavi rate 0.47 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Tbilisi rate 0.58 and 1.60.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rustavi a 22.5% chance of the title and Dinamo Tbilisi 25%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rustavi the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Rustavi against 1.01 for Dinamo Tbilisi. Rustavi's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.6 for Dinamo Tbilisi.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rustavi at home · Dinamo Tbilisi away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Rustavi 28, Dinamo Tbilisi 28.
Rustavi score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Dinamo Tbilisi have let in 4 there.
Dinamo Tbilisi score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); Rustavi have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rustavi
- at Gagra1 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 45%
- vs Samgurali7 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 51%
- at Dinamo Batumi21 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 33%
- vs Meshakhte25 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 54%
Dinamo Tbilisi
- vs FC Iberia 199931 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 41%
- at Dila8 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 34%
- vs Torpedo Kutaisi20 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 46%
- at Gagra24 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.