Dila
vs
FC Iberia 1999
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Dila 1–0 FC Iberia 1999
The model makes it 39% Dila, 30% draw, 31% FC Iberia 1999 — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Dila 1.41, FC Iberia 1999 1.17.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Dila are 5th on 40 points from 27 games; FC Iberia 1999 are 4th on 46 points from 27 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Dila have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 4-1 win away to Spaeri.
- FC Iberia 1999 have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Dinamo Tbilisi.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Iberia 1999 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 September 2026, ended FC Iberia 1999 2–1 Dila.
All Erovnuli Liga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Dila vs FC Iberia 1999
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dila at 39% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dila vs FC Iberia 1999
Dila
- W4-1away to Spaeri21 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Iberia 199917 September 2026
- D2-2Dinamo Batumi13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Samgurali9 September 2026
- W1-0Gagra5 September 2026
FC Iberia 1999
- L1-2Dinamo Tbilisi4 October 2026
- W2-0away to Rustavi21 September 2026
- W2-1Dila17 September 2026
- W1-0Spaeri13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Batumi9 September 2026
What these results say
- Dila scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dila conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Dila had three goals or more.
- FC Iberia 1999 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Dila | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 38 | 30 | +8 | 40 |
| 4 | FC Iberia 1999 | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 30 | +8 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dila vs FC Iberia 1999
- 17 September 2026FC Iberia 1999 2–1 DilaErovnuli Liga
- 6 May 2026Dila 0–1 FC Iberia 1999Erovnuli Liga
- 6 March 2026FC Iberia 1999 1–0 DilaErovnuli Liga
- 10 December 2025FC Iberia 1999 1–3 DilaDavid Kipiani Cup
- 26 October 2025FC Iberia 1999 2–1 DilaErovnuli Liga
- 17 August 2025Dila 0–6 FC Iberia 1999Erovnuli Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dila carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.31 for FC Iberia 1999. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Dila and 1.17 for FC Iberia 1999. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dila rate 0.59 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Iberia 1999 rate 0.54 and 1.61.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Iberia 1999, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dila a 2.4% chance of the title and FC Iberia 1999 16.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dila the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Dila against 1.17 for FC Iberia 1999. Dila's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.61 for FC Iberia 1999.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dila at home · FC Iberia 1999 away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Dila 27, FC Iberia 1999 27.
FC Iberia 1999 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Dila have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Dila
- at Meshakhte24 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 47%
- at Torpedo Kutaisi2 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 35%
- vs Dinamo Tbilisi8 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 37%
- at Gagra20 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 43%
FC Iberia 1999
- vs Mjallby AIF22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 41%
- vs Torpedo Kutaisi26 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 39%
- at Dinamo Tbilisi31 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.