Mjallby AIF
vs
Kalmar FF
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Mjallby AIF 1–0 Kalmar FF
The model makes it 46% Mjallby AIF, 28% draw, 26% Kalmar FF — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Mjallby AIF 1.54, Kalmar FF 1.00.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 1,986 settled matches.
Edge to Mjallby AIF: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Mjallby AIF's rating is built from 54 Allsvenskan matches and Kalmar FF's from 23, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 675 matches.
Key facts
- Mjallby AIF are 12th on 23 points from 24 games; Kalmar FF are 14th on 19 points from 23 games — Allsvenskan.
- Mjallby AIF have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Vasteras SK FK.
- Kalmar FF have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Malmo FF.
- Last 5 meetings: Mjallby AIF 4 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 July 2026, ended Kalmar FF 2–1 Mjallby AIF.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mjallby AIF at 46% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,987 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF
Mjallby AIF
- L0-1away to Vasteras SK FK18 October 2026
- D1-1Degerfors IF10 October 2026
- L0-3Gais20 September 2026
- D1-1away to AIK Stockholm16 September 2026
- D1-1away to BK Hacken11 September 2026
Kalmar FF
- L0-1away to Malmo FF12 October 2026
- L0-5BK Hacken20 September 2026
- L0-1away to IF Elfsborg13 September 2026
- L0-1Djurgardens IF7 September 2026
- L0-1away to Halmstad29 August 2026
What these results say
- Mjallby AIF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mjallby AIF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Mjallby AIF had two goals or fewer.
- Kalmar FF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Kalmar FF failed to score in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kalmar FF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 23 |
| 14 | Kalmar FF | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF
- 25 July 2026Kalmar FF 2–1 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 21 February 2026Mjallby AIF 2–0 Kalmar FFSvenska Cupen
- 17 January 2026Mjallby AIF 4–0 Kalmar FFFriendlies Clubs
- 20 October 2024Kalmar FF 0–3 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 29 April 2024Mjallby AIF 3–2 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF
Mjallby AIF
GoalsAssists
- J. Bergström90
Kalmar FF
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mjallby AIF carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.19 for Kalmar FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.00 for Kalmar FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mjallby AIF rate 0.56 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kalmar FF rate 0.44 and 1.69.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mjallby AIF the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Mjallby AIF against 1.00 for Kalmar FF. Mjallby AIF's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.69 for Kalmar FF.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Mjallby AIF at home · Kalmar FF away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Mjallby AIF 24, Kalmar FF 23.
Kalmar FF score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Mjallby AIF have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Mjallby AIF
- vs Borac Banja Luka5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 31%
- at IF Brommapojkarna8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 30%
Kalmar FF
- vs Sirius8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 21%
- at Orgryte IS23 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.