Dinamo Batumi
vs
Samgurali
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Batumi 2–1 Samgurali
The model makes it 53% Dinamo Batumi, 23% draw, 24% Samgurali — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Dinamo Batumi 2.23, Samgurali 1.35.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Dinamo Batumi: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Dinamo Batumi are top on 50 points from 28 games; Samgurali are 7th on 35 points from 28 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Dinamo Batumi are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Dinamo Tbilisi.
- Samgurali have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Gagra.
- Last 6 meetings: Samgurali 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 August 2026, ended Samgurali 0–4 Dinamo Batumi.
More Erovnuli Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dinamo Batumi vs Samgurali
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Batumi at 53% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dinamo Batumi vs Samgurali
Dinamo Batumi
- W1-0Dinamo Tbilisi11 October 2026
- W3-2Torpedo Kutaisi20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Dila13 September 2026
- W2-0FC Iberia 19999 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rustavi4 September 2026
Samgurali
- W3-0Gagra11 October 2026
- L2-3Dinamo Tbilisi19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Torpedo Kutaisi14 September 2026
- L1-3Dila9 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Iberia 19995 September 2026
What these results say
- Dinamo Batumi went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Batumi scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Batumi won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Samgurali scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Samgurali had three goals or more.
- Samgurali failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Batumi | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 47 | 36 | +11 | 50 |
| 7 | Samgurali | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dinamo Batumi
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 33% today
Samgurali
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today
From our Erovnuli Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Dinamo Batumi vs Samgurali
- 16 August 2026Samgurali 0–4 Dinamo BatumiErovnuli Liga
- 10 May 2026Dinamo Batumi 3–1 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 12 March 2026Samgurali 1–1 Dinamo BatumiErovnuli Liga
- 30 November 2025Samgurali 4–0 Dinamo BatumiErovnuli Liga
- 28 September 2025Dinamo Batumi 1–2 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 25 May 2025Samgurali 3–0 Dinamo BatumiErovnuli Liga
The two sides
Dinamo Batumi carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.12 for Samgurali. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.23 goals for Dinamo Batumi and 1.35 for Samgurali. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Batumi rate 0.59 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Samgurali rate 0.57 and 2.53.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dinamo Batumi a 32.7% chance of the title and Samgurali 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Batumi the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Dinamo Batumi against 1.35 for Samgurali. Dinamo Batumi's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.53 for Samgurali.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dinamo Batumi at home · Samgurali away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Dinamo Batumi 28, Samgurali 28.
Dinamo Batumi score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Samgurali have let in 11 there.
Samgurali score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Dinamo Batumi have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Dinamo Batumi
- vs Meshakhte1 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 58%
- at Spaeri8 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 45%
- vs Rustavi21 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 37%
- vs Dila25 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 40%
Samgurali
- vs Spaeri31 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 45%
- at Rustavi7 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 23%
- vs FC Iberia 199921 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 30%
- vs Torpedo Kutaisi25 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.