Meshakhte
vs
Dila
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Meshakhte 0–1 Dila
The model makes it 22% Meshakhte, 28% draw, 50% Dila — fair odds of 4.55, 3.57 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (12%).
Expected goals: Meshakhte 0.90, Dila 1.61.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Dila are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Meshakhte are bottom on 17 points from 28 games; Dila are 5th on 40 points from 28 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Meshakhte have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to FC Iberia 1999.
- Dila have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Rustavi.
- Last 3 meetings: Dila 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 August 2026, ended Dila 3–1 Meshakhte.
More Erovnuli Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Meshakhte vs Dila
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dila at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Meshakhte vs Dila
Meshakhte
- L1-2FC Iberia 199910 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gagra19 September 2026
- L0-1Rustavi14 September 2026
- D0-0away to Dinamo Tbilisi10 September 2026
- D2-2Spaeri5 September 2026
Dila
- L1-3away to Rustavi10 October 2026
- W4-1away to Spaeri21 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Iberia 199917 September 2026
- D2-2Dinamo Batumi13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Samgurali9 September 2026
What these results say
- Meshakhte did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Meshakhte conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dila scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dila conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Dila had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Meshakhte | 28 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 21 | 46 | -25 | 17 |
| 5 | Dila | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 39 | 33 | +6 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dila
Chance to finish in the top four · 21% today
From our Erovnuli Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Meshakhte vs Dila
- 16 August 2026Dila 3–1 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga
- 10 May 2026Meshakhte 0–2 DilaErovnuli Liga
- 12 March 2026Dila 0–1 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga
The two sides
Meshakhte carry a model rating of 5.95 against 6.3 for Dila. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.90 goals for Meshakhte and 1.61 for Dila. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Meshakhte rate 0.34 in attack and 2.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dila rate 0.59 and 1.78.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Meshakhte a 0% chance of the title and Dila 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dila the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Meshakhte against 1.61 for Dila. Meshakhte's attack/defence rating is 0.34/2.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.78 for Dila.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Meshakhte at home · Dila away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Meshakhte 28, Dila 28.
Meshakhte score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Dila have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Meshakhte
- at Dinamo Batumi1 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 17%
- vs Torpedo Kutaisi7 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 24%
- at Spaeri21 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 26%
- at Rustavi25 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 17%
Dila
- at Torpedo Kutaisi2 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 35%
- vs Dinamo Tbilisi8 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 38%
- at Gagra20 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 47%
- at Dinamo Batumi25 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.