Krylia Sovetov
vs
FC Orenburg
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Krylia Sovetov 1–0 FC Orenburg
The model makes it 40% Krylia Sovetov, 29% draw, 31% FC Orenburg — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Krylia Sovetov 1.37, FC Orenburg 1.16.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Krylia Sovetov's rating is built from 42 Russian Premier League matches and FC Orenburg's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 581 matches.
Key facts
- Krylia Sovetov are 7th on 15 points from 12 games; FC Orenburg are 6th on 16 points from 12 games — Premier League.
- Krylia Sovetov have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Rubin.
- FC Orenburg are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Akhmat.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended FC Orenburg 1–0 Krylia Sovetov.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Krylia Sovetov vs FC Orenburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Krylia Sovetov at 40% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Krylia Sovetov vs FC Orenburg
Krylia Sovetov
Premier League
- W2-0away to Rubin24 October 2026
- L1-2Fakel17 October 2026
- D1-1Spartak Moscow10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv16 September 2026
- W2-1Rodina Moskva11 September 2026
FC Orenburg
Premier League
- W1-0away to Akhmat23 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rodina Moskva19 October 2026
- W4-0Dinamo Makhachkala10 October 2026
- D0-0FC Krasnodar17 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dynamo12 September 2026
What these results say
- Krylia Sovetov scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Krylia Sovetov.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Krylia Sovetov | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Krylia Sovetov vs FC Orenburg
- 10 May 2026FC Orenburg 1–0 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 4 March 2026Krylia Sovetov 2–0 FC OrenburgCup
- 18 October 2025Krylia Sovetov 1–1 FC OrenburgPremier League
- 27 April 2025Krylia Sovetov 2–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
- 20 October 2024FC Orenburg 2–2 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 4 May 2024Orenburg 2–1 Krylya SovetovPremier League
Leading scorers: Krylia Sovetov and FC Orenburg
Krylia Sovetov
GoalsAssists
- A. Rahmanović40
- M. Kramarič31
FC Orenburg
GoalsAssists
- J. Thompson42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Krylia Sovetov carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.26 for FC Orenburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.16 for FC Orenburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Krylia Sovetov rate 0.56 in attack and 1.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Orenburg rate 0.48 and 1.58.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Orenburg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Krylia Sovetov the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov against 1.16 for FC Orenburg. Krylia Sovetov's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.58 for FC Orenburg.
How the model reaches 40% for Krylia Sovetov to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Krylia Sovetov to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Krylia Sovetov's ratings take away 28 points and FC Orenburg's ratings add 26 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Krylia Sovetov's ratings14%−28
- FC Orenburg's ratings40%+26
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Krylia Sovetov at home · FC Orenburg away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Krylia Sovetov 12, FC Orenburg 12.
FC Orenburg score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Krylia Sovetov have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Krylia Sovetov
- at FC Rostov20 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- vs Dynamo29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- at Dinamo Makhachkala4 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs Lokomotiv27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 37%
FC Orenburg
- vs Baltika21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs Rodina Moskva29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 55%
- at Akron5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- at Dinamo Makhachkala27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.