Macara
vs
Universidad Catolica Quito
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Macara 1–0 Universidad Catolica Quito
The model makes it 44% Macara, 27% draw, 29% Universidad Catolica Quito — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Macara 1.58, Universidad Catolica Quito 1.19.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Macara's rating is built from 74 Ecuador LigaPro matches and Universidad Catolica Quito's from 74, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Macara are 2nd on 63 points from 34 games; Universidad Catolica Quito are 3rd on 53 points from 34 games — Liga Pro, Championship Group.
- Macara are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to LDU de Quito.
- Universidad Catolica Quito are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Independiente del Valle.
- Last 6 meetings: Universidad Catolica Quito 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 October 2026, ended Universidad Catolica Quito 0–1 Macara.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Macara vs Universidad Catolica Quito
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Macara at 44% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Macara vs Universidad Catolica Quito
Macara
Liga Pro
- W2-1away to LDU de Quito24 October 2026
- W1-0Independiente del Valle17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Universidad Catolica Quito11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Aucas19 September 2026
- W1-0Emelec13 September 2026
Universidad Catolica Quito
Liga Pro
- D0-0away to Independiente del Valle23 October 2026
- D1-1away to Barcelona SC18 October 2026
- L0-1Macara11 October 2026
- L1-2away to LDU de Quito20 September 2026
- W2-1Orense SC15 September 2026
What these results say
- Macara won every one of these 5 matches.
- Macara scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Universidad Catolica Quito failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Universidad Catolica Quito conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Macara | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 47 | 35 | +12 | 63 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica Quito | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 53 | 31 | +22 | 53 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Macara vs Universidad Catolica Quito
- 11 October 2026Universidad Catolica Quito 0–1 MacaraLiga Pro
- 18 August 2026Macara 1–1 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
- 24 April 2026Universidad Catolica Quito 4–0 MacaraLiga Pro
- 27 July 2025Macara 1–4 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
- 6 April 2025Universidad Catolica Quito 1–0 MacaraLiga Pro
- 30 November 2024Macara 1–2 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Macara and Universidad Catolica Quito
Macara
GoalsAssists
- F. Posse135
- A. Campana113
Universidad Catolica Quito
GoalsAssists
- J. Fajardo113
- M. Alonso84
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Macara carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.67 for Universidad Catolica Quito. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Macara and 1.19 for Universidad Catolica Quito. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Macara rate 0.83 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Universidad Catolica Quito rate 0.82 and 1.17.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Macara the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Macara against 1.19 for Universidad Catolica Quito. Macara's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.17 for Universidad Catolica Quito.
How the model reaches 44% for Macara to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Macara to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Macara's ratings take away 10 points and Universidad Catolica Quito's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Macara's ratings34%−10
- Universidad Catolica Quito's ratings44%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Macara at home · Universidad Catolica Quito away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Macara 34, Universidad Catolica Quito 34.
Macara score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); Universidad Catolica Quito have let in 11 there.
Universidad Catolica Quito score most often in the 46–60 minute window (15 goals); Macara have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Macara
- at Independiente del Valle22 Nov · Liga Prowin 24%
- vs LDU de Quito29 Nov · Liga Prowin 47%
- at Barcelona SC6 Dec · Liga Prowin 30%
- vs Aucas13 Dec · Liga Prowin 52%
Universidad Catolica Quito
- vs Barcelona SC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 45%
- vs Independiente del Valle29 Nov · Liga Prowin 40%
- at Aucas6 Dec · Liga Prowin 36%
- vs LDU de Quito13 Dec · Liga Prowin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.