25 September 2026, 00:30 UTC

Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin
Referee: Diego Ulloa Angulo
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Atletico Nacional 1-1 Millonarios.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Atletico Nacional, 28% draw, 24% Millonarios — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Nacional at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atletico Nacional4%Draw93%Millonarios3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Chicho Arangoout: Andrés Sarmiento
15'
Andrés Felipe Marín Bernal
26'
39'
⚽Julian Angulo
⚽Andrés Reyesassist: Elías Lautaro Cabrera
45+3'
45'
🔁Julian Anguloout: Leonardo Castro
Juan Zapata
55'
59'
Stiven Vega
🔁Juan Zapataout: James Rodríguez
60'
67'
🔁Daniel Felipe Ruiz Riveraout: David Silva
🔁Marlos Morenoout: Kevin Parra
67'
70'
Leonardo Castro
Elías Lautaro Cabrera
82'
•Andrés Sarmiento
85'
Andrés Sarmiento
85'
88'
🔁Rodrigo Ureñaout: Sebastián Viveros del Castillo

Match stats — Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios

59%Possession41%
13Shots4
3On target3
3Corners2

Line-ups

Atletico Nacional 4-2-3-1
  • 34F. ArmaniG
  • 6A. RománD
  • 3N. ParraD
  • 15A. ReyesD
  • 16W. TesilloD
  • 22E. CabreraM
  • 26F. MarinM
  • 99I. PovedaM
  • 80J. ZapataM
  • 7M. MorenoM
  • 17C. ArangoF
Substitutes
  • 4C. HaydarD
  • 20M. CascoD
  • 25L. MarquinezG
  • 30K. ParraM
  • 27Y. PerlazaD
  • 31X. RiosM
  • 23J. RodríguezM
  • 29A. SarmientoF
  • 24J. RosaF
Coach: L. González
Millonarios 5-3-2
  • 1J. BurraiG
  • 2C. SarabiaD
  • 4S. BarreiroD
  • 6S. MosqueraD
  • 20D. BangueroD
  • 13F. ChaverraD
  • 24J. AnguloM
  • 28S. VegaM
  • 18R. UreñaM
  • 10D. RuizF
  • 11A. EstupiñánF
Substitutes
  • 26A. LlinásD
  • 3M. Diaz SamuelD
  • 35Sebastián MosqueraF
  • 14D. SilvaM
  • 22Sebastián Valencia IsazaD
  • 30S. del CastilloM
  • 23L. CastroF
  • 17J. AriasD
  • 12J. AguirreG
Coach: A. Gamero

Form going into Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios

Atletico Nacional

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Llaneros21 September 2026

Millonarios

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Atletico Nacional1812333717+2039
7Millonarios186932516+927

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios

  • 18 March 2026Millonarios 3–0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
  • 5 March 2026Atletico Nacional 1–3 MillonariosCONMEBOL Sudamericana
  • 28 September 2025Atletico Nacional 2–0 MillonariosPrimera A
  • 17 June 2025Atletico Nacional 0–1 MillonariosPrimera A
  • 6 June 2025Millonarios 0–0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A

Leading scorers: Atletico Nacional and Millonarios

Atletico Nacional

GoalsAssists

  • A. Morelos166
  • A. Sarmiento117
  • E. Cardona104

Millonarios

GoalsAssists

  • A. Estupiñán194
  • L. Castro126
  • R. Contreras101

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atletico Nacional and Millonarios drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Nacional at 48% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Julian Angulo 39' for Millonarios, Andrés Reyes 45+3' for Atletico Nacional. Sent off: Andrés Sarmiento (Atletico Nacional) 85'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.