25 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Montenegro vs Cyprus UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Stadion pod Goricom, Podgorica
Referee: Daniele Chiffi
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Montenegro 2-1 Cyprus.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Montenegro, 27% draw, 27% Cyprus — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Montenegro at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Montenegro97%Draw3%Cyprus0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
Konstantinos Sotiriou
45'
🔁Andreas Shikkisout: Nicholas Tsaroulla
46'
Grigoris Kastanos
55'
⚽Marcus Edwardsassist: Nicholas Tsaroulla
🔁Stevan Jovetićout: Milan Vukotic
59'
🔁Ognjen Gasevicout: Marko Vešović
60'
65'
Nicholas Tsaroulla
⚽Nikola Krstović (pen)
66'
Igor Vujacic
68'
70'
🔁Marcus Edwardsout: Loizos Loizou
71'
🔁Marinos Tzionisout: Stavros Georgiou
71'
🔁panagiotis andreouout: Leonidas·Konomis
🔁Vasilije Adzicout: Dušan Vuković
71'
⚽Milutin Osmajićassist: Nikola Krstović
86'
🔁Marko Jankovićout: Milos Brnovic
89'
🔁Nikola Krstovićout: Stefan Loncar
89'
90+1'
🔁Nikolas Panagiotouout: A. Neophytou

Match stats — Montenegro vs Cyprus

64%Possession36%
19Shots11
4On target4
8Corners1

Line-ups

Montenegro 4-4-2
  • 1B. PopovićG
  • 2M. RoganovićD
  • 15S. SavićD
  • 5I. VujačićD
  • 16O. GaševićD
  • 20M. OsmajićM
  • 21A. BulatovićM
  • 8M. JankovićM
  • 17Vasilije AdžićM
  • 10S. JovetićF
  • 9N. KrstovićF
Substitutes
  • 13I. NikićG
  • 22S. LončarM
  • 19V. ĐukanovićF
  • 4A. ĐurićD
  • 12D. PetkovićG
  • 3R. RadunovićD
  • 6S. RubežićD
  • 7M. VešovićD
  • 11M. VukotićM
Coach: Mirko Vucinić
Cyprus 4-1-4-1
  • 1FabianoG
  • 6A. ShikkisD
  • 5K. SotiriouD
  • 3N. PanagiotouD
  • 14G. MalekkidesD
  • 4H. KyprianouM
  • 23M. EdwardsM
  • 16P. AndreouM
  • 20G. KastanosM
  • 21M. TzionisM
  • 9I. PittasF
Substitutes
  • 18K. ArtymatasM
  • 19S. GeorgiouF
  • 11A. KakoullisF
  • 13I. KostiM
  • 10L. LoizouF
  • 12J. MallG
  • 7A. NeophytouF
  • 22A. ParaskevasG
  • 2K. PileasD
Coach: A. Mantzios

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Montenegro431074+310
2Cyprus421153+27

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Montenegro vs Cyprus

  • 17 November 2020Montenegro 4–0 CyprusUEFA Nations League
  • 5 September 2020Cyprus 0–2 MontenegroUEFA Nations League
  • 23 March 2018Cyprus 0–0 MontenegroFriendlies

The result against the call

Montenegro beat Cyprus 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Montenegro at 46%. The goals: Marcus Edwards 55' for Cyprus, Nikola Krstović (penalty) 66' for Montenegro, Milutin Osmajić 86' for Montenegro.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.