21 July 2026

Sturm Graz vs Heart of Midlothian UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Full time4 – 0

Final score: Sturm Graz 4-0 Heart of Midlothian.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Sturm Graz, 25% draw, 27% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sturm Graz at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽J. Gorenc Stankovicassist: J. Mitchell
4'
⚽
38'
•Szymon Włodarczyk
39'
🔁S. Seidlout: O. Kiteishvili
46'
47'
Oisin McEntee
⚽J. Mitchellassist: O. Kiteishvili
50'
⚽L. Weinhandlassist: J. Hodl
53'
Jon Gorenc Stanković
56'
59'
🔁C. Millerout: S. Kerjota
59'
🔁P. Kaboreout: A. Ba-Sy
59'
🔁A. Kyziridisout: S. Guendouz
⚽J. Heilassist: L. Weinhandl
59'
🔁J. Hodlout: R. Fosso
70'
🔁S. Jattaout: N. Weiper
70'
🔁S. Wlodarczykout: A. Kayombo
70'
75'
🔁B. Spittalout: T. Renaud
🔁E. Sogloout: A. Malic
79'
84'
🔁O. McEnteeout: T. Magnusson
86'
Amadou Ba-Sy

Match stats — Sturm Graz vs Heart of Midlothian

33%Possession67%
20Shots19
6On target6
4Corners12

Line-ups

Sturm Graz 4-4-2
  • 53D. KhudyakovG
  • 28J. HeilD
  • 5A. VallciD
  • 2J. MitchellD
  • 18E. SogloD
  • 19S. SeidlM
  • 4J. Gorenc StankovicM
  • 39L. WeinhandlM
  • 43J. HodlM
  • 17S. WlodarczykF
  • 20S. JattaF
Substitutes
  • 22A. HelacG
  • 41E. LorenzG
  • 10O. KiteishviliM
  • 15G. MamageishviliM
  • 80R. FossoM
  • 26B. BeganovicF
  • 21P. PetrovicD
  • 30P. KollerD
  • 27G. HaiderD
Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch
Heart of Midlothian 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. SchwolowG
  • 2C. BorchgrevinkD
  • 64M. Fagan-WalcottD
  • 5J. McCartD
  • 18H. MilneD
  • 16B. SpittalM
  • 6O. McEnteeM
  • 7C. MillerM
  • 10C. BragaM
  • 89A. KyziridisM
  • 11P. KaboreF
Substitutes
  • 30R. FultonG
  • 28Z. ClarkG
  • 3S. KingsleyD
  • 29S. KerjotaF
  • 22T. MagnussonM
  • 77A. Ba-SyF
  • 17S. FindlayD
  • 12T. RenaudM
  • 19S. GuendouzF
Coach: Wouter Vrancken

Sturm Graz and Heart of Midlothian in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
4Sturm GrazBundesliga632186+211
3Heart of MidlothianPremiership5401125+712

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Bundesliga · Premiership

Head-to-head: Sturm Graz vs Heart of Midlothian

  • 21 July 2026Sturm Graz 4–0 Heart of MidlothianUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Sturm Graz and Heart of Midlothian

Sturm Graz

  • N. Weiper2 goals

Heart of Midlothian

  • J. McPake2 goals3 assists
  • Cláudio Braga2 goals2 assists
  • J. Wilson2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.