21 July 2026

Sturm Graz vs Heart of Midlothian UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Full time4 – 0

Final score: Sturm Graz 4-0 Heart of Midlothian.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Sturm Graz, 25% draw, 27% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Champions League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Heart of Midlothian v Sturm Graz, 28 Jul →

Sturm Graz went through 6–0 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sturm Graz at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽J. Gorenc Stankovicassist: J. Mitchell
4'
⚽
38'
•Szymon Włodarczyk
39'
🔁S. Seidlout: O. Kiteishvili
46'
47'
Oisin McEntee
⚽J. Mitchellassist: O. Kiteishvili
50'
⚽L. Weinhandlassist: J. Hodl
53'
Jon Gorenc Stanković
56'
59'
🔁C. Millerout: S. Kerjota
59'
🔁P. Kaboreout: A. Ba-Sy
59'
🔁A. Kyziridisout: S. Guendouz
⚽J. Heilassist: L. Weinhandl
59'
🔁J. Hodlout: R. Fosso
70'
🔁S. Jattaout: N. Weiper
70'
🔁S. Wlodarczykout: A. Kayombo
70'
75'
🔁B. Spittalout: T. Renaud
🔁E. Sogloout: A. Malic
79'
84'
🔁O. McEnteeout: T. Magnusson
86'
Amadou Ba-Sy

Match stats — Sturm Graz vs Heart of Midlothian

33%Possession67%
20Shots19
6On target6
4Corners12

Line-ups

Sturm Graz 4-4-2
  • 53D. KhudyakovG
  • 28J. HeilD
  • 5A. VallciD
  • 2J. MitchellD
  • 18E. SogloD
  • 19S. SeidlM
  • 4J. Gorenc StankovicM
  • 39L. WeinhandlM
  • 43J. HodlM
  • 17S. WlodarczykF
  • 20S. JattaF
Substitutes
  • 22A. HelacG
  • 41E. LorenzG
  • 10O. KiteishviliM
  • 15G. MamageishviliM
  • 80R. FossoM
  • 26B. BeganovicF
  • 21P. PetrovicD
  • 30P. KollerD
  • 27G. HaiderD
Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch
Heart of Midlothian 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. SchwolowG
  • 2C. BorchgrevinkD
  • 64M. Fagan-WalcottD
  • 5J. McCartD
  • 18H. MilneD
  • 16B. SpittalM
  • 6O. McEnteeM
  • 7C. MillerM
  • 10C. BragaM
  • 89A. KyziridisM
  • 11P. KaboreF
Substitutes
  • 30R. FultonG
  • 28Z. ClarkG
  • 3S. KingsleyD
  • 29S. KerjotaF
  • 22T. MagnussonM
  • 77A. Ba-SyF
  • 17S. FindlayD
  • 12T. RenaudM
  • 19S. GuendouzF
Coach: Wouter Vrancken

The result against the call

Sturm Graz beat Heart of Midlothian 4–0. The model had made a win for Sturm Graz its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.