28 July 2026, 18:45 UTC

Heart of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Heart of Midlothian 0-2 Sturm Graz.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Heart of Midlothian, 22% draw, 55% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 4.35, 4.55 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sturm Graz at 55% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
•Seedy Jatta
🔁S. Kingsleyout: S. Findlay
45+2'
46'
🔁L. Weinhandlout: R. Fosso
61'
Albert Vallci
64'
⚽S. Seidlassist: J. Gorenc Stankovic
68'
⚽E. Soglo
🔁C. Millerout: P. Kabore
69'
🔁S. Guendouzout: A. Ba-Sy
69'
🔁B. Spittalout: T. Renaud
69'
72'
🔁S. Wlodarczykout: B. Beganovic
76'
🔁E. Sogloout: A. Malic
77'
🔁J. Hodlout: G. Mamageishvili
🔁A. Kyziridisout: J. McCart
80'
81'
🔁J. Gorenc Stankovicout: J. Halwachs

Match stats — Heart of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz

64%Possession36%
15Shots17
4On target9
8Corners2

Line-ups

Heart of Midlothian 4-3-3
  • 1A. SchwolowG
  • 23J. AltenaD
  • 64M. Fagan-WalcottD
  • 3S. KingsleyD
  • 18H. MilneD
  • 16B. SpittalM
  • 6O. McEnteeM
  • 19S. GuendouzM
  • 89A. KyziridisF
  • 10C. BragaF
  • 7C. MillerF
Substitutes
  • 30R. FultonG
  • 28Z. ClarkG
  • 29S. KerjotaF
  • 22T. MagnussonM
  • 11P. KaboreF
  • 77A. Ba-SyF
  • 17S. FindlayD
  • 5J. McCartD
  • 12T. RenaudM
Coach: Wouter Vrancken
Sturm Graz 4-4-2
  • 53D. KhudyakovG
  • 28J. HeilD
  • 5A. VallciD
  • 2J. MitchellD
  • 18E. SogloD
  • 19S. SeidlM
  • 39L. WeinhandlM
  • 4J. Gorenc StankovicM
  • 43J. HodlM
  • 17S. WlodarczykF
  • 20S. JattaF
Substitutes
  • 22A. HelacG
  • 41E. LorenzG
  • 10O. KiteishviliM
  • 15G. MamageishviliM
  • 80R. FossoM
  • 26B. BeganovicF
  • 21P. PetrovicD
  • 30P. KollerD
  • 40J. HalwachsM
Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch

Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz

Heart of Midlothian

  • L0-4away to Sturm Graz21 July 2026

Sturm Graz

  • W4-0Heart of Midlothian21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Heart of Midlothian and Sturm Graz in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
3Heart of MidlothianPremiership5401125+712
4Sturm GrazBundesliga632186+211

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Premiership · Bundesliga

Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz

  • 28 July 2026Heart of Midlothian 0–2 Sturm GrazUEFA Champions League
  • 21 July 2026Sturm Graz 4–0 Heart of MidlothianUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and Sturm Graz

Heart of Midlothian

  • J. McPake2 goals3 assists
  • Cláudio Braga2 goals2 assists
  • J. Wilson2 goals

Sturm Graz

  • N. Weiper2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.