UEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying Round · 28 July 2026, 18:45 UTC

Heart of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz

Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Heart of Midlothian 0-2 Sturm Graz.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Heart of Midlothian, 22% draw, 55% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 4.35, 4.55 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian 1.27, Sturm Graz 2.06.

Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

63%
Both teams to score
65%
Over 2.5 goals
35%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 10%1-2 10%0-2 8%

Match stats: Heart of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz

Heart of Midlothian had 64% possession, 15 shots (4 on target), 8 corners; Sturm Graz had 36% possession, 17 shots (9 on target), 2 corners.

Goals: S. Seidl 64' for Sturm Graz, E. Soglo 68' for Sturm Graz.

Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz

  • 21 July 2026Sturm Graz 4–0 Heart of MidlothianUEFA Champions League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sturm Graz the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Heart of Midlothian against 2.06 for Sturm Graz. Heart of Midlothian's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.43 for Sturm Graz.