28 July 2026, 18:45 UTC

Heart of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Heart of Midlothian 0-2 Sturm Graz.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Heart of Midlothian, 22% draw, 55% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 4.35, 4.55 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Champions League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Sturm Graz 4–0 Heart of Midlothian (21 Jul) →

Sturm Graz went through 6–0 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sturm Graz at 55% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
•Seedy Jatta
🔁S. Kingsleyout: S. Findlay
45+2'
46'
🔁L. Weinhandlout: R. Fosso
61'
Albert Vallci
64'
⚽S. Seidlassist: J. Gorenc Stankovic
68'
⚽E. Soglo
🔁C. Millerout: P. Kabore
69'
🔁S. Guendouzout: A. Ba-Sy
69'
🔁B. Spittalout: T. Renaud
69'
72'
🔁S. Wlodarczykout: B. Beganovic
76'
🔁E. Sogloout: A. Malic
77'
🔁J. Hodlout: G. Mamageishvili
🔁A. Kyziridisout: J. McCart
80'
81'
🔁J. Gorenc Stankovicout: J. Halwachs

Match stats — Heart of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz

64%Possession36%
15Shots17
4On target9
8Corners2

Line-ups

Heart of Midlothian 4-3-3
  • 1A. SchwolowG
  • 23J. AltenaD
  • 64M. Fagan-WalcottD
  • 3S. KingsleyD
  • 18H. MilneD
  • 16B. SpittalM
  • 6O. McEnteeM
  • 19S. GuendouzM
  • 89A. KyziridisF
  • 10C. BragaF
  • 7C. MillerF
Substitutes
  • 30R. FultonG
  • 28Z. ClarkG
  • 29S. KerjotaF
  • 22T. MagnussonM
  • 11P. KaboreF
  • 77A. Ba-SyF
  • 17S. FindlayD
  • 5J. McCartD
  • 12T. RenaudM
Coach: Wouter Vrancken
Sturm Graz 4-4-2
  • 53D. KhudyakovG
  • 28J. HeilD
  • 5A. VallciD
  • 2J. MitchellD
  • 18E. SogloD
  • 19S. SeidlM
  • 39L. WeinhandlM
  • 4J. Gorenc StankovicM
  • 43J. HodlM
  • 17S. WlodarczykF
  • 20S. JattaF
Substitutes
  • 22A. HelacG
  • 41E. LorenzG
  • 10O. KiteishviliM
  • 15G. MamageishviliM
  • 80R. FossoM
  • 26B. BeganovicF
  • 21P. PetrovicD
  • 30P. KollerD
  • 40J. HalwachsM
Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch

Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz

Heart of Midlothian

All competitions we cover

  • L0-4away to Sturm Graz21 July 2026

Sturm Graz

All competitions we cover

  • W4-0Heart of Midlothian21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz

  • 21 July 2026Sturm Graz 4–0 Heart of MidlothianUEFA Champions League

The result against the call

Sturm Graz won 2–0 at Heart of Midlothian. The model had made a win for Sturm Graz its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: S. Seidl 64' for Sturm Graz, E. Soglo 68' for Sturm Graz.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.