Atletico Mineiro vs Bahia Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Mineiro 1-1 Bahia.
Before kick-off the model made it 11% Atletico Mineiro, 18% draw, 71% Bahia — fair odds of 9.09, 5.56 and 1.41. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bahia at 71% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 22EversonG
- 2NatanaelD
- 13LyancoD
- 4RuanD
- 6Renan LodiD
- 8MayconM
- 25Tomás PérezM
- 30Victor HugoM
- 11BernardF
- 9Mateo CassierraF
- 28Tomás CuelloF
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 36Kauã PasciniD
- 39Mamady CisséM
- 48João Pedro Porto Lucrécio "Gutte"M
- 5AlexsanderM
- 19ReinierM
- 17Igor GomesM
- 29Cauã Campos SoaresF
- 1RonaldoG
- 31Román GómezD
- 33David DuarteD
- 21Santiago Ramos MingoD
- 66José GuilhermeD
- 14ErickM
- 5Nicolás AcevedoM
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 7AdemirF
- 12Willian JoséF
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 17Guido HerreraG
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 25Iago BorduchiD
- 4KanuD
- 77Ruan PabloF
- 63David MartinsM
- 15Michel AraújoM
- 23Mateo SanabriaF
- 57Kauê FurquimM
Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Bahia
Atletico Mineiro
No earlier matches on record this season.
Bahia
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Chapecoense17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 50 |
| 6 | Bahia | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 48 | 42 | +6 | 53 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Bahia
- 5 November 2025Atletico Mineiro 3–0 BahiaSerie A
- 13 July 2025Bahia 2–1 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 15 September 2024Bahia 3–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 2 June 2024Atletico Mineiro 1–1 BahiaSerie A
- 7 December 2023Bahia 4–1 Atletico MineiroSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Mineiro and Bahia
Atletico Mineiro
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.
Bahia
GoalsAssists
- Luciano Juba111
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Mineiro and Bahia drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Bahia at 71% and given a draw 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: Ruan Tressoldi 45+1' for Atletico Mineiro, Ademir 57' for Bahia.