21 July 2026

Atletico Mineiro vs Bahia Serie A prediction & result

Full time1 – 1

Final score: Atletico Mineiro 1-1 Bahia.

Before kick-off the model made it 11% Atletico Mineiro, 18% draw, 71% Bahia — fair odds of 9.09, 5.56 and 1.41. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bahia at 71% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ruan Tressoldiassist: Bernard
45+1'
46'
🔁S. Ramosout: Marcos Victor
57'
⚽Ademirassist: Rodrigo
🔁Victor Hugoout: Dudu
67'
🔁Mayconout: M. Cisse
67'
73'
🔁Ademirout: Everton Ribeiro
73'
🔁Willian Joseout: Ruan Pablo
77'
Ze Guilherme
80'
🔁Ze Guilhermeout: Iago Borduchi
🔁Bernardout: Reinier
86'
87'
🔁Erick Pulgaout: Kaue Junior
87'
Erick

Line-ups

Atletico Mineiro 4-3-3
  • 22EversonG
  • 2NatanaelD
  • 13LyancoD
  • 4RuanD
  • 6Renan LodiD
  • 8MayconM
  • 25Tomás PérezM
  • 30Victor HugoM
  • 11BernardF
  • 9Mateo CassierraF
  • 28Tomás CuelloF
Substitutes
  • 1Gabriel DelfimG
  • 14Vitor HugoD
  • 36Kauã PasciniD
  • 39Mamady CisséM
  • 48João Pedro Porto Lucrécio "Gutte"M
  • 5AlexsanderM
  • 19ReinierM
  • 17Igor GomesM
  • 29Cauã Campos SoaresF
Coach: Eduardo Dominguez
Bahia 4-3-3
  • 1RonaldoG
  • 31Román GómezD
  • 33David DuarteD
  • 21Santiago Ramos MingoD
  • 66José GuilhermeD
  • 14ErickM
  • 5Nicolás AcevedoM
  • 11Rodrigo NestorM
  • 7AdemirF
  • 12Willian JoséF
  • 16Erick PulgaF
Substitutes
  • 17Guido HerreraG
  • 44Marcos VictorD
  • 25Iago BorduchiD
  • 4KanuD
  • 77Ruan PabloF
  • 63David MartinsM
  • 15Michel AraújoM
  • 23Mateo SanabriaF
  • 57Kauê FurquimM
Coach: Ceni Rogerio

Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Bahia

Atletico Mineiro

No earlier matches on record this season.

Bahia

  • W2-0Chapecoense17 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Atletico Mineiro2611693531+439
4Bahia27121054233+946

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Bahia

  • 21 July 2026Atletico Mineiro 1–1 BahiaSerie A
  • 5 November 2025Atletico Mineiro 3–0 BahiaSerie A
  • 13 July 2025Bahia 2–1 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 15 September 2024Bahia 3–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 2 June 2024Atletico Mineiro 1–1 BahiaSerie A
  • 7 December 2023Bahia 4–1 Atletico MineiroSerie A

Leading scorers: Atletico Mineiro and Bahia

Atletico Mineiro

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.

Bahia

  • Luciano Juba8 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.